Reading HLIO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLIO free→
Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$85.65+0.14%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, and the company is capital-friendly, yet risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Specialty Industrial Machinery
- Market cap
- $2.80B
- Employees
- 2,300
- IPO date
- 1996-10-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $85.65. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$77.77consensus
Range $69.51 – $82.33
vs price: +10% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$103.54consensus
Range $92.23 – $112.08
vs price: -17% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $86 HLIO trades at 29× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $76 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $76–$89. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
29.3x
peer 24.0x · own history —
Premium
1.2x peer
Growth the price needs
13%
our forecast 10%
Our fair value
$75.62
range $69.30 – $81.27
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
full12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 13% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
91st pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
74th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +17.5% / 30d, n=6for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.68 → $0.80 (+17.5% / 30d). 6 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$170.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$331.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,707.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth re-accelerating in the sector
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Helios and its peers in a maturing sector.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 7%.
Disproves:3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector stays below 5%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HLIO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-111mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, Helios Technologies (the “Company”), issued the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 announcing its financial results for the first fiscal quarter of 2026.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+14 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.