Reading FDMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FDMT free→Reading FDMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FDMT free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, FDMT trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.22 FDMT trades at 7× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $15 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 38% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.80x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.98 → $-1.01 (-2.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 5 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$277.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$834.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,140.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FDMT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (“4DMT”) announced its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of 4DMT’s press release, titled “4DMT Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results, Operational Highlights and Expected Upcoming Milestones” is furnished pursuant to
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FDMT 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to fund currently planned operations into the second half of 2028.
Management is focused on improving financial performance, as evidenced by recent earnings beats.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 25, 2026, the Board of Directors of 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Kristian Humer as the Company’s Principal Accounting Officer, effective immediately. In this role, Mr. Humer succeeds Ashoo Gupta, who continues to serve as the Company’s Vice President, Finance and Controller. Mr. Humer, age 51, has served as the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 18, 2026, 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (“4DMT”) announced its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of 4DMT’s press release, titled “4DMT Reports Full Year 2025 Financial Results, Operational Highlights and Expected Upcoming Milestones” is furnished pursuant to
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. Issuance of Pre-Funded Warrants in Exchange for Common Stock On January 22, 2026, 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into exchange agreements with RA Capital Healthcare Fund, L.P. (“RA Capital”) and Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P. and its affiliates (“BVF”), pursuant to which RA Capital exchanged 4,850,000 shares of the Company’s common stock for a pre-funded warrant to acquire 4,850,000 shares of the Company’s common stock, and BVF…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) Departure of President and Chief Operating Officer On December 31, 2025, in connection with his transition to a new part-time employment position, Fariborz Kamal, Ph.D., resigned as President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company effective immediately to pursue other opportunities. Dr. Kamal has agreed to transition to a part-time employme…