Reading EVH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EVH free→Reading EVH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EVH free→NYSEHealth CareHealth Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 85% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how they affect estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.71 EVH trades at 0× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $30 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $3.50–$6.00. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 84% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.06x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.01 (-11.3% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$312.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$740.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,159.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If health care sector revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Evolent's performance. This would signal a better market environment.
Confirms:Health care sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Health care sector revenue growth stays below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EVH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject the Company or any other person to liability under that Section, to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$3.50 – $6.00 (median $6.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Technology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EVH Evolent Health, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
VEEV Veeva Systems | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | elevated |
SOLV Solventum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TEM TEMPUS AI, INC. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | — | elevated |
TXG 10X Genomics, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Evolent Health aims to achieve its 2026 revenue guidance range of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion.
Evolent Health aims to maintain its adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $110 million to $140 million for 2026.
Evolent Health plans to deploy $25 million to $30 million in cash for capitalized software development during 2026.
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject the Company or any other person to liability under that Section, to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 1, 2025, Ms. Cheryl Scott retired from the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Evolent Health, Inc. (the “Company”). Ms. Scott’s decision to retire was not the result of any disagreement between the Company and Ms. Scott on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies or practices. In connection with Ms. Scott’s resignation…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 6, 2025, the Company announced a restructuring of leadership roles and transitions of its leadership team. Chief Financial Officer Transition On November 6, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company appointed Mario Ramos, 54, as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer (principal financial officer), effective January 1, 202…
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject the Company or any other person to liability under that Section, to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.