Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$4.15-1.66%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Evolent Health aims for $2.4B to $2.6B revenue in 2026. Adjusted EBITDA should be $110M to $140M. The company grew revenue from $468.7M in 2025-Q4 to $496.2M in 2026-Q1. New CFO and stable guidance support progress.
The company is still loss-making with weak momentum. Earnings misses and legal issues raise risks. Revenue growth may slow below analyst expectations.
The market expects about 35% revenue growth. Our fair value is near $28.29, reflecting justified growth but elevated risk.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $110 million in FY26
Evolent Health aims to maintain its adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $110 million to $140 million for 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving financial performance. The current thesis state is cautious, as the company is working to achieve its revenue and EBITDA guidance while facing elevated risks.
The market appears to be pricing in a low level of fragility, suggesting that investors are not overly concerned about immediate risks. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that the company may need to exceed current forecasts to impress the market.
Management is on track to meet its revenue guidance, with recent growth showing promise. However, there is a watch on adjusted EBITDA, as the company has a history of earnings misses, which adds near-term risk.
The long-term thesis hinges on maintaining revenue and EBITDA guidance while navigating potential economic headwinds. Key factors include the performance of sector peers and the overall economic environment, particularly job growth.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. However, concerns about achieving 2026 revenue guidance of $2.6B to $2.7B pose a threat.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Capitalized software spend falls below $25 million in FY26
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $2.4 billion in FY26
Raise and deliver full-year 2026 revenue guidance in the range of $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $496.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $652.5 million in 2026-Q2. The Company raised its 2026 revenue guidance from $2.4-$2.6 billion to $2.6-$2.7 billion, showing delivering trajectory on growth expectations.
“the Company is raising its 2026 revenue guidance range to $2.6 to $2.7 billion.”
“the Company is reiterating its 2026 revenue guidance range of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion”
“the Company now expects revenue for the full year ending December 31, 2026 to be in the range of approximately $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EVH's success will depend on its ability to execute on its financial goals amid a mixed sector backdrop. Not investment advice.