Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$4.80-1.84%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Evolent Health, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.35 → 0.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	759.46M
EPS	—	0.128
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.6B–$2.7B	2.64B
EPS	—	0.17
EBITDA	$120M–$135Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.3B
EPS	—	0.356
Revenue growth	25%	—

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain adjusted EBITDA of $110M to $140M in 2026	Adjusted EBITDA should be $110M to $140M.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $110 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Deploy $25M to $30M for capitalized software in 2026	A supporting condition in Evolent Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $25 million to $30 million.	Intact	Capitalized software spend falls below $25 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $13.255M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $25 million to $30 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202613,255,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company consistently expects to deploy $25 million to $30 million in cash for capitalized software development in 2026. This priority is stable with no reported deviation, indicating delivering on planned capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve 2026 revenue of $2.4B to $2.6B	A primary condition in Evolent Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.4 billion.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $2.4 billion in FY26	Revenue: $652.52M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.4 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026652,520,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d5348bce-59c1-4c28-9279-ca16ba21cc34. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $496.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $652.5 million in 2026-Q2. The Company raised its 2026 revenue guidance from $2.4-$2.6 billion to $2.6-$2.7 billion, showing delivering trajectory on growth expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.36

$0.37 → $0.36 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.30B

$2.95B → $3.30B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.37	$2,946,897,798	8 / 11
2026-07-25	$0.37	$2,934,981,460	11 / 15
2026-07-26	$0.37	$2,934,981,460	11 / 15
2026-07-27	$0.37	$2,934,981,460	11 / 15
2026-07-28	$0.35	$2,943,220,173	8 / 11
2026-07-29	$0.35	$2,943,220,173	8 / 11
2026-07-30	$0.36	$2,932,245,790	11 / 15
2026-07-31	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	8 / 11
2026-08-01	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	8 / 11
2026-08-02	$0.36	$2,932,245,790	11 / 15
2026-08-03	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	8 / 11
2026-08-04	$0.36	$2,932,245,790	11 / 15
2026-08-05	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	8 / 11
2026-08-06	$0.36	$2,932,245,790	11 / 15
2026-08-07	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	8 / 11
2026-08-08	$0.35	$3,311,476,600	10 / 5
2026-08-09	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	8 / 11
2026-08-10	$0.35	$3,311,476,600	10 / 5
2026-08-11	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	8 / 11
2026-08-12	$0.38	$3,194,364,530	10 / 15
2026-08-13	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	8 / 11
2026-08-14	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	8 / 11
2026-08-15	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	7 / 11
2026-08-16	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	7 / 11
2026-08-17	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	7 / 11
2026-08-18	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	7 / 11
2026-08-19	$0.34	$2,940,289,102	7 / 11
2026-08-20	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	7 / 11
2026-08-21	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	7 / 11
2026-08-22	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	7 / 11
2026-08-23	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	7 / 11
2026-08-24	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	7 / 11
2026-08-25	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	7 / 11
2026-08-26	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	7 / 11
2026-08-27	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	7 / 11
2026-08-28	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	7 / 11
2026-08-29	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-08-30	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-08-31	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-01	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-02	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-03	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-04	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-05	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-06	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-07	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-08	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-09	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-10	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-11	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-12	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-13	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-14	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-15	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-16	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-17	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-18	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-19	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-20	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-21	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-22	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-23	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-24	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-25	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-26	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	8 / 11
2026-09-27	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	7 / 11
2026-09-28	$0.35	$3,297,914,221	7 / 11
2026-09-29	$0.36	$3,295,801,845	7 / 11
2026-09-30	$0.36	$3,295,801,845	7 / 11
2026-10-01	$0.36	$3,295,801,845	7 / 11
2026-10-02	$0.36	$3,295,801,845	7 / 11
2026-10-03	$0.36	$3,295,801,845	7 / 11
2026-10-04	$0.36	$3,295,801,845	7 / 11
2026-10-05	$0.36	$3,295,801,845	7 / 11
2026-10-06	$0.36	$3,295,801,845	7 / 11
2026-10-07	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-08	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-09	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-10	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-11	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-12	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-13	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-14	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-15	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-16	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-17	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-18	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-19	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-20	$0.36	$3,295,806,631	7 / 11
2026-10-21	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-22	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-23	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11
2026-10-24	$0.36	$3,295,803,988	7 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	2
2026-06-01	14	3
2026-07-01	12	4
2026-08-01	12	4
2026-09-01	12	3
2026-10-01	11	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain adjusted EBITDA of $110M to $140M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Deploy $25M to $30M for capitalized software in 2026Capital expenditures: $13.255M
Achieve 2026 revenue of $2.4B to $2.6BRevenue: $652.52M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-72.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Evolent Health, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

EVH is a higher-risk growth business, not yet a proven profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, but confidence is medium and profitability remains a key test.

What's priced into Evolent Health, Inc.

The evidence describes EVH as cheap versus peers, while also showing a small premium versus peers, so the valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low; the evidence does not support a firm conclusion about what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has increased from $496.2 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $652.5 million in the second, and the company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion. Adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating earnings before certain costs, rose from $22.1 million to $28.1 million, but the full-year guidance remains under watch. Consecutive earnings misses and a 41% estimated miss probability add near-term execution risk.

What Evolent Health, Inc. hinges on

The key test is whether EVH can deliver its raised revenue guidance while meeting adjusted EBITDA guidance of $120 million to $135 million for 2026. A guidance cut after the recent increase would hurt management credibility, while weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare businesses. Continued strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.