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Track OMDA free→Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA)
NASDAQHealth CareHealth Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-06
Intact
$22.85+2.05%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
The thesis is that OMDA's growth potential is strong. The company recently raised guidance. Revenue growth has been steady, with a significant beat of 90% last quarter. OMDA trades at a high multiple compared to peers, which suggests the market expects more growth. The market is pricing in more growth than we forecast, indicating expectations look full. A specific risk is that if OMDA cuts guidance, it could hurt credibility. Peer multiples imply a price about 64% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Health Information Services
- Market cap
- $1.33B
- Employees
- 916
- IPO date
- 2025-05-09
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.85. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$14.20
Range $4.91 – $14.40
vs price: +61% above
Method agreement : high · 7 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$13.93consensus
Range $13.93 – $13.93
vs price: +64% above
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$18.42consensus
Range $18.42 – $18.42
vs price: +24% above
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
medium confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for OMDA right now, so treat our $14 fair value as low-confidence (our number sits below the analyst range). Analysts target $15–$30. Note: our $14 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($15–$30). Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
76%
our forecast 25%
Our fair value
$13.87
range $4.64 – $17.19
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The price sits about 76% above a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 25% growth — well above our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
1038.6xP/E · peer median
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-06.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +24.7% / 30d, n=5for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.07 → $0.09 (+24.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 65.9% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$224.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$621.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,915.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. There are no new strengths or weaknesses noted. The market backdrop has seen some fluctuations, but they do not affect the read.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 17d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth hitting 25% year-over-year
Why it matters: Achieving 25% growth is key for Omada's 2026 goals. It shows strong demand and execution.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reaches or exceeds 25% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-191mo agoSeeking Alpha
Lack of pricing power could hinder revenue growth.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth to re-accelerate above 10%
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VEEV, BTSG, and TEM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting OMDA and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If OMDA beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +90% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for OMDA and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If OMDA reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-07), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like VEEV, BTSG, and TEM start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping OMDA and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-072mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.