Certara, Inc. (CERT)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29
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Put CERT beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Health Care is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue growth of 0% to 4% excluding divested business: Revenue growth: -10.81%.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 4% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — what the market is pricing in runs ahead of what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 62% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskCERT’s core claim depends on revenue growth recovering, not merely strong recent performance. Revenue was flat year over year in both listed quarters, despite the latest earnings beat. CERT trades at 34× P/E versus a 25× peer median. The market is pricing more growth than our forecast, despite weak revenue growth. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 42%. Job cuts also threaten the 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin objective of 30% to 32%. Peer multiples imply a price about 70% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. CERT is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 13 analysts currently covering CERT (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CERT Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Health Care Technology — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put CERT next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Maintain adjusted EBITDA margin of 30% - 32% for 2026
Job cuts may impact adjusted EBITDA margin objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.

Advances: Focus on core competencies
AI push aligns with growth and core competencies.
Threatens: Revenue Growth of 0% - 4% for 2026
Earnings miss raises concerns about revenue growth.