Reading CERT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CERT free→Reading CERT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CERT free→NASDAQHealth CareHealth Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The outlook hinges on whether CERT cuts guidance on the next call, which could negatively impact estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.21 the market pays 33× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 34× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $4.88 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 7% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -6.00x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.10 → $0.09 (-5.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 10 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$172.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$541.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,706.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation fell by 17.0 points (from 67.0 to 50.0).
Valuation fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Risk is elevated, and earnings quality is characterized as loss-making. Recent financial performance is strong, but management is stable.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is below 0%, it shows problems after the sale. This could affect future plans.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CERT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026 , Certara, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three-month period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release containing the announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act o…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Technology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CERT Certara, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | elevated |
VEEV Veeva Systems | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | elevated |
SOLV Solventum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TEM TEMPUS AI, INC. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | — | elevated |
TXG 10X Genomics, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Certara aims to streamline operations by focusing on its core competencies.
Certara aims for revenue growth between 0% and 4% for the fiscal year 2026, excluding divested businesses.
Certara targets an adjusted EBITDA margin between 30% and 32% for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: If the adjusted EBITDA margin is below 30%, it shows problems in operations. This can hurt profits.
Confirms:The adjusted EBITDA margin was below 30% for 2026.
Disproves:The adjusted EBITDA margin was at or above 30% for 2026.
Why it matters: If total bookings keep falling, it shows problems in getting new contracts.
Confirms:Total bookings reported down more than 2% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Total bookings reported stable or growing year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: If software revenue growth is above 7%, it shows strong demand. This supports future growth.
Confirms:Q2 software revenue growth reported above 7% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 software revenue growth reported below 7% year over year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 21, 2026, Certara, Inc. (the “Company”), together with certain of its subsidiaries, entered into a Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Veristat, LLC and certain of its affiliates (collectively, “Veristat”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to sell its global medical writing and related regulatory services business (the “Business”) to Veristat. The transaction will be effected through the sale of all of the equity interest…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 27, 2026, Cynthia Collins, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Certara, Inc. (the “Company”) and the Audit Committee of the Board, notified the Company of her intention to resign as a Class II director on the Board, effective as of May 14, 2026, the date of the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. Ms. Collins advi…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026 , Certara, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three-month period ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release containing the announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchan…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Sixth Amendment to the Credit Agreement On October 16, 2025 (the “ Closing Date ”), Certara USA, Inc. (the “ Co-Borrower ”), an indirect subsidiary of Certara, Inc. (the “ Company ”), Certara Holdings, Inc. (“ Certara Holdings ”), Certara Holdco, Inc. (the “ Parent Borrower ” and, together with the Co-Borrower, the “ Borrowers ”), Certara Intermediate, Inc. (“ Holdings ”) and certain other wholly-owned subsidiaries of the Borrowers entered into a Si…