Reading TXG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TXG free→Reading TXG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TXG free→NASDAQHealth CareHealth Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 226% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.75. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32, TXG's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 54× p/e (3.7× the 15× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~248% near-term growth vs our ~7% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $9.25 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $20–$30. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 248% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -5.65x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.04 → $-0.02 (+61.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$327.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$599.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,803.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for 10X Genomics. The sector's health impacts the company directly.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth rises back toward 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TXG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$20.00 – $30.00 (median $23.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Technology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TXG 10X Genomics, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
VEEV Veeva Systems | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | elevated |
SOLV Solventum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TEM TEMPUS AI, INC. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | — | elevated |
DOCS Doximity | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
10x Genomics aims to maintain its full year 2026 revenue guidance between $600 million and $625 million.
10x Genomics aims to achieve positive cash flow from operations, as evidenced by recent financial performance.
10x Genomics is focused on improving its gross profit margins over time.
in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing..
in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. After more than eight years of exemplary service, on November 12, 2025 Eric S. Whitaker announced his intention to retire as Chief Legal Officer of 10x Genomics, Inc. (the “Company”) effective January 1, 2026. Mr. Whitaker will remain an employee of the Company with reduced compensation and assume the position of Strategic Counsel, continuing to pr…