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Track HTFL free→HeartFlow, Inc. (HTFL)
NASDAQHealth CareHealth Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$27.11-3.06%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that HTFL's growth potential is under scrutiny after a sharp drop. The company recently raised guidance but then fell 16% in a single session. This price movement suggests the market is reassessing its value. HTFL trades at a valuation that implies a price about 116% below where it trades. The risk is that if HTFL cuts guidance, it could hurt credibility and lead to further declines. Peer multiples imply a price about 116% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Health Information Services
- Market cap
- $2.41B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-07-17
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.11. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$12.53
Range $8.14 – $16.92
vs price: +116% above
Method agreement : high · 2 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$23.04consensus
Range $14.97 – $31.10
vs price: +18% above
Method agreement : medium · 2 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$30.44consensus
Range $19.79 – $41.09
vs price: -11% below
Method agreement : medium · 2 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
Trading +116% versus the 12-month peer-multiple consensus (looks stretched on this basis).
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Compared to peers
12.1xP/S · peer median 1.7x
Looks more expensive than peers.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E
—
EV/EBITDA
—
FCF yield
-3.3%
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=3552).
98th pctl · Health Care
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral7 analysts, 88% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.11 → $-0.11 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme AI-drug-discovery.headwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$250.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$836.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,866.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mixed'.
Yes, our read has weakened. A sharp drop in HTFL's stock price may indicate a repricing of the thesis, suggesting that the market is reassessing the reasons to own the stock. This follows a significant decline of 16% in a single session around June 30, which typically signals a credibility hit for the company.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 17d
Watch for HeartFlow increasing annual revenue guidance
Why it matters: If the company raises its revenue forecast, it shows strong growth momentum. This could boost investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:HeartFlow raises its annual revenue guidance above $232M.
Disproves:HeartFlow maintains or lowers its annual revenue guidance below $228M.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-201mo agoInvesting.com UK
Earnings beat but stock drop indicates market concerns.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth to re-accelerate above 10%
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VEEV, BTSG, and TEM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting HTFL and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If HTFL beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +6% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for HTFL and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If HTFL reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-14), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like VEEV, BTSG, and TEM start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping HTFL and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-141mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On May 14, 2026, Heartflow, Inc. issued a press release regarding its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.