Reading ESE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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Track ESE free→NYSEIndustrialsScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ESE is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 71% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $327.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $328 the market pays 44× p/e — above the 24× p/e peer median but in line with its own 40× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $190 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 73% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 30%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.84x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.11 → $2.10 (-0.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 25.6% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$121.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$273.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,522.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows that the company manages costs well. This means they are efficient.
Confirms:Operating income growth reported above 10% year over year in Q3.
Disproves:Operating income growth reported below 5% year over year in Q3.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Acquisition of Megger Group Limited
Acquisition aligns with growth strategy and enhances balance sheet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 29, 2026, the Registrant and certain of its subsidiaries entered into Credit Agreement with a group of banks led by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent, Bank of America, N.A. as syndication agent, BMO Capital Markets Corp., Commerce Bank, Regions Capital Markets, a Division of Regions Bank, TD Bank, N.A. and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association as co-documentation agents (the “New Credit Agreement”). The New Credit Agreement wi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ESE ESCO Technologies Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the acquisition of Megger Group Limited to enhance growth.
Focus on increasing operating income through efficiency improvements.
Achieve revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating the Adjusted EPS guidance shows good performance and strong market demand.
Confirms:Q3 2026 Adjusted EPS reported in the range of $2.05 - $2.15 per share.
Disproves:Q3 2026 Adjusted EPS falls below $2.05 per share.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key indicator of ESCO's market performance and demand for its products.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported above 8% year over year in Q3.
Disproves:Revenue growth reported below 4% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue guidance shows strong performance and demand in ESCO's key markets.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported in the range of $1.29 to $1.33 billion.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue falls below $1.29 billion.
Why it matters: Finalizing this acquisition could boost ESCO's growth and market position. It is a key priority for management.
Confirms:A press release says the Megger Group acquisition is complete.
Disproves:There are delays or problems stopping the acquisition from closing.
Why it matters: Closing the Megger deal will expand ESCO's product offerings and market reach. This could enhance growth and profitability.
Confirms:Regulators have approved the deal. The acquisition will close by Q1 of fiscal 2027.
Disproves:The acquisition may face delays. It might not get the needed regulatory approvals.
Why it matters: A slowdown in new orders may show weaker demand in ESCO's markets.
Confirms:Entered orders growth in Q3 2026 is below 20% year over year.
Disproves:Entered orders growth remains above 20% year over year.
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement Upon the effectiveness of the New Credit Agreement defined and described in Item 1.01, the Existing Credit Agreement will be terminated. The Existing Credit Agreement had been scheduled to mature by its terms on August 30, 2028.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information set forth in
and Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended (“Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, unless the Registrant incorporates it by reference into a filing under the Securities Act of 1933 as amended or the Exchange Act. Any references to the Registrant’s website address in this Form 8-K and the press release are included only as inactive textual references, and…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Proposed Acquisition On April 15, 2026, ESCO Technologies Inc., a Missouri corporation (the “ Registrant ”), entered into a share purchase agreement (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) with TBG AG, a Swiss stock corporation (the “ Seller ”), pursuant to which the Seller agreed to sell, and the Registrant agreed to purchase, the entire issued share capital of Megger Group Limited, a company incorporated in England and Wales (the “ Company ,” and such transac…