Reading CRDF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRDF free→Reading CRDF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRDF free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 436% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.42, CRDF's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 179× p/s (19.0× the 9× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~550% near-term growth vs our ~7% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.22 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 436% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -35.98x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.12 → $-0.16 (-33.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 3 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 43.0% above current price.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$265.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$741.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,169.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth speeds up, it may help Cardiff's performance. It shows a healthier market.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRDF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, on May 19, 2026, Cardiff Oncology, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a lawsuit against Nerviano Medical Sciences S.r.l. (“NMS”) disputing NMS’s allegation that the Company materially breached the License Agreement dated March 13, 2017 between the Company and NMS (the “Agreement”) by declining to name NMS employee Dr. Barbara Valsasina as a joint inventor of the Company’s U.S. Pat. Nos. 12,144,813 and 12,263,173 (the “Cardiff Patent…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CRDF Cardiff Oncology, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 7 of 100 | expensive | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Cardiff plans to share detailed Phase 2 CRDF-004 data and provide registrational plans for onvansertib in combination with FOLFIRI/bev in first-line RAS-mutated mCRC.
Cardiff is addressing litigation with Nerviano Medical Sciences regarding a license agreement dispute.
Cardiff is undergoing a strategic leadership review and restructuring, including changes in CEO and CFO positions.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Cardiff can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of progress.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline or flat growth year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, Cardiff Oncology, Inc. issued a press release announcing a business update and financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Other Events. On May 19, 2026, Cardiff Oncology, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a lawsuit against Nerviano Medical Sciences S.r.L (“NMS”) disputing NMS’s allegation that the Company materially breached its license agreement (Agreement) for onvansertib. The complaint, filed in the United States District Court for the Southern District of California, seeks injunctive relief requiring NMS to continue performing under the Agreement and a declaratory judgment that Cardiff did not breach the Agreement.…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers: Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 9, 2026, Cardiff Oncology, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Josh Muntner has been appointed the Company’s Chief Financial Officer effective April 6, 2026. Mr. Muntner’s base salary is $475,000 per year with a 40% annual discretionary bonus. In addition, Mr. Muntner was granted non-qualified stock options to purchase 486,650 shares of th…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Previously on January 26, 2026, Cardiff Oncology, Inc. (the “Company”) disclosed that Dr. Mark Erlander, CEO and James Levine, CFO had stepped down from their respective roles at the Company as part of a strategic review. On March 27, 2026 (the “Separation Date”), the Company entered into separation agreements with each of Dr. Erlander and Mr. Levine. Pursuant to Dr. Erlander’s agreement, among other things, he will be paid (i) his base salary of $6…