Cardiff Oncology, Inc. (CRDF)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.91-2.23%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cardiff Oncology, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	86,429
EPS	—	-0.134
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	292,143
EPS	—	-0.578
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	320,833
EPS	—	-0.609

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
complete strategic leadership review and restructuring	The company is addressing litigation with Nerviano Medical Sciences and undergoing leadership restructuring.	Improving	continued leadership turnover or unclear strategy by end 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Leadership changes occurred with CEO, CFO, and COO appointments in 2026-Q1 following prior executive departures in 2025-Q4. This reflects delivering on management's restructuring and leadership strengthening priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
address litigation with Nerviano Medical Sciences	The company is addressing litigation with Nerviano Medical Sciences and undergoing leadership restructuring.	Recovered	litigation unresolved or adverse rulings by end 2026	Litigation resolved via settlement on 2026-09-14 8-K filed Sept 14, 2026 confirms settlement agreement resolving Cardiff v. Nerviano litigation. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company filed litigation against Nerviano in 2026-Q2 and announced a settlement and amended license agreement in 2026-Q3, resolving disputes and securing collaboration. This shows delivering resolution consistent with management's stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
share detailed Phase 2 CRDF-004 data and registrational plans	Cardiff Oncology aims to share detailed Phase 2 CRDF-004 data and registrational plans.	Improving	no detailed Phase 2 data or registrational plans shared by end 2026	Qualitative: Phase 3 path cleared vs End-2026 target Cardiff announced at H.C. Wainwright conference that the trial path for onvansertib Phase 3 registrational trial in first-line RAS-mutated mCRC is clearing. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
stabilize or grow revenue from 2027	A primary condition in Cardiff Oncology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue declines less than 10% in 2027 vs 2026.	Broken	revenue declines more than 10% in 2027 vs 2026	Revenue: $104,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue declines less than 10% in 2027 vs 2026. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 11, 2026104,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 36fc24f2-ea89-44df-a905-2e420883f178. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$-0.81 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.00B

$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-07-25	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-07-27	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$-0.82	$189,286	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$-0.82	$189,286	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$-0.82	$189,286	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-08-03	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-08-04	$-0.82	$189,286	5 / 5
2026-08-05	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-08-07	$-0.82	$189,286	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-08-09	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-08-10	$-0.82	$189,286	5 / 5
2026-08-11	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$-0.81	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$-0.74	$189,290	5 / 7
2026-08-14	$-0.82	$189,286	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$-0.82	$189,286	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$-0.82	$189,286	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$-0.82	$189,286	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$-0.82	$189,286	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$-0.82	$189,286	5 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$189,286	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$189,286	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$189,286	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$189,286	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$320,833	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	1
2026-06-01	7	4
2026-07-01	7	4
2026-08-01	4	5
2026-09-01	3	4
2026-10-01	3	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

complete strategic leadership review and restructuringQualitative condition
stabilize or grow revenue from 2027Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-74.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cardiff Oncology, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative clinical-stage biotech thesis, with potential tied to progress in onvansertib and some early commercial activity. The thesis is on watch: management has made progress on stated priorities, but earnings quality remains loss-making and the overall risk is high.

What's priced into Cardiff Oncology, Inc.

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a meaningful expectations gap linked to optionality, or value investors assign to possible future outcomes. Model confidence is low, and the evidence does not support a more precise view of what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven: recent financial performance is neutral overall and below the industry cohort, while revenue rose from $41,000 in the first quarter of 2026 to $104,000 in the second. Management reported FDA alignment on a planned Phase 3 trial and resolved its dispute with Nerviano through a settlement and amended license agreement. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, and the evidence on future financial performance is limited.

What Cardiff Oncology, Inc. hinges on

Over the multi-year view, the main swing factor is whether CRDF advances the Phase 3 trial in first-line RAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer as planned. Near term, a guidance cut or further labor-market weakening could add pressure, while continued strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.