Reading CPRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPRX free→Reading CPRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPRX free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with CPRX trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $31 CPRX trades at 14× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $41 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 23% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 23%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.94x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.69 → $0.74 (+6.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$73.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$314.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,918.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This deal will help Catalyst reach more patients with rare diseases. It will also improve its products.
Confirms:The deal will close in Q3 2026 as planned. There will be no regulatory delays.
Disproves:The deal may face big regulatory problems. It could also be delayed past Q3 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CPRX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 6, 2026, Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“ Catalyst ” or the “ Company ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Angelini Pharma S.p.A., an Italian Società per azioni (“ Angelini Pharma ” or “ Parent ”), and Angelini Cielo Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly-owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Merger Sub ”), providing for the merger of Merger Sub with and into the Company (the “ Merger ”), with the Company s…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CPRX Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Partners, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals aims to expand its business through the acquisition of Angelini Pharma.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals is focused on resolving patent litigation with Hetero USA.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals aims to increase its revenue and net income.
Why it matters: Resolving this litigation can clear the path for FIRDAPSE sales and boost revenue.
Confirms:A public announcement that says the patent case is settled.
Disproves:New news that makes the case worse or delays the settlement.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue growth shows strong business and high market demand.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The acquisition is key for growth. Progress signals Catalyst's expansion strategy is working.
Confirms:A press release that confirms the deal is done or that approvals are granted.
Disproves:News about delays or problems in the deal process.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal could help Catalyst grow and improve its market position.
Confirms:Catalyst Pharmaceuticals will say when the merger is done.
Disproves:Merger fails to close or is delayed beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Solving this case will help keep FIRDAPSE's market share and income safe.
Confirms:All current patent cases about FIRDAPSE are resolved in a good way.
Disproves:New legal cases come up or current cases end badly for Catalyst.
Why it matters: The result will affect FIRDAPSE's market position. It will also impact its revenue.
Confirms one read:The patent case ends in Catalyst's favor. This allows them to keep market exclusivity.
Confirms the other:The case ends badly for Catalyst. This will let generic drugs compete with FIRDAPSE.
Why it matters: Steady income growth will show that Catalyst's products are strong.
Confirms:Q2 2026 product revenue from FIRDAPSE and AGAMREE grows year over year by at least 20%.
Disproves:Q2 2026 product revenue from FIRDAPSE and AGAMREE declines or grows less than 10%.
Other Events On May 7, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that it and its licensor, SERB S.A. (“ SERB ”) have entered into a settlement agreement (“ Settlement Agreement ”) with Hetero USA, Inc. (“ Hetero ”). This Settlement Agreement resolves the patent litigation brought by the Company and SERB in response to Hetero’s Abbreviated New Drug Application (“ ANDA ”) seeking approval to market a generic version of FIRDAPSE ® (amifampridine) 10 mg tablets prior to expiration of th…
Other Events On October 1, 2025, the Company issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has approved a share repurchase program authorizing the Company to repurchase up to $200 million of its common stock between October 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Repurchases under the new share repurchase program may be made through a variety of methods, including open market or privately negotiated purchases. The timing and amount of shares repurchased will depend on the stock price,…