Reading COGT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COGT free→Reading COGT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COGT free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.80x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.54 → $-0.56 (-3.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 85% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.7% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$130.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$453.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,634.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'moderate' to 'elevated'.
As of June 16, 2026, risk rose, changing to an elevated level. The sector backdrop also faced a headwind. The company remains in a loss-making position, and recent financial performance is described as weak.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Cogent's outlook.
Confirms:Healthcare revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for COGT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COGT Cogent Biosciences, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | — | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the commercial organization build and launch bezuclastinib in the second half of 2026.
Ensure existing cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities are sufficient to fund operations and capital expenditures into 2028.
and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Other Events. On December 6, 2025 and December 8, 2025, Cogent Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) presented the full results from its SUMMIT clinical trial of bezuclastinib in patients with nonadvanced systemic mastocytosis (“NonAdvSM”) and announced positive top-line results from its APEX clinical trial of bezuclastinib in patients with advanced systemic mastocytosis (“AdvSM”), respectively. SUMMIT Trial Results On December 6, 2025, the Company announced complete results from the registration…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 18, 2025, Cogent Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) completed its previously-announced public offering (the “Offering”) of $230,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 1.625% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”), including the exercise in full of the underwriters’ over-allotment option to purchase up to an additional $30.0 million principal amount of the Notes. The Notes were issued pursuant to, and are governed by, an indent…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Equity Offering On November 11, 2025, Cogent Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Equity Underwriting Agreement”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Jefferies LLC, Leerink Partners LLC and Guggenheim Securities, LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Equity Underwriters”), to issue and sell 9,677,420 shares of the Company’s common stock at a public offering price o…