Reading CMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CMT free→Reading CMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CMT free→AMEXMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CMT is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 CMT trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $33 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.40x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.40 → $0.21 (-47.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$173.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$377.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,989.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Core Molding's revenue growth shows it is handling challenges. This could mean demand is recovering.
Confirms:Core Molding reports revenue growth of more than 0% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CMT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Director Appointment As previously disclosed, effective June 1, 2026, David L. Duvall resigned from the board of directors (the “ Board ”) of Core Molding Technologies, Inc (the “ Company ”). In connection with Mr. Duvall’s resignation, on June 5, 2026, the Board appointed Eric Palomaki, the Company’s President & Chief Executive Officer, to fill th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CMT Core Molding Technologies, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Focus on maintaining revenue growth with a target of flat to 5% increase year-over-year.
Target a full-year gross margin in the range of 17% to 19% for 2026.
Why it matters: The new CEO may shift company strategy. This could affect revenue and margins moving forward.
Confirms one read:The new CEO announces a strategic plan that aims to boost revenue and margins.
Confirms the other:The new CEO continues with the same strategy without changes or improvements.
Why it matters: Meeting this margin target would show improved cost management and profitability. It is key for financial health.
Confirms:Gross margin reported between 17% and 19% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Gross margin reported below 17%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Director Resignation and Appointment On May 29, 2026, David L. Duvall submitted notice of his resignation as a member of the board of directors (the “Board”) of Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”), effective June 1, 2026. Mr. Duvall’s resignation was related to his previously announced retirement as the Company’s President & Chief Execu…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. CEO Transition On May 14, 2026, Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (the “ Company ”) and David L. Duvall the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer entered into a Transition Agreement (the “ Transition Agreement ”), in connection with the previously announced planned transition and retirement of Mr. Duvall. The Transition Agreement is effecti…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, the Company announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing this event is included in this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 10, 2026, the Company announced financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release announcing this event is included in this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1.