Reading CALC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CALC free→Reading CALC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CALC free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed because the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 83% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for CALC right now, so treat our $5.04 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 83% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.08x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.29 → $-0.26 (+9.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$437.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,038.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,248.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing. It will also share plans for the future.
Confirms one read:Announcement of the next earnings date with positive guidance or outlook.
Confirms the other:Announcement of the next earnings date with negative guidance or no updates.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CALC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, CalciMedica, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 to this report, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabil…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CALC CalciMedica Inc | — | inexpensive | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Maintain sufficient cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments to fund operations into the fourth quarter of 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently projected that its cash position will support operations into Q4 2026. However, operating cash flow remains negative, with -$4.86M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in improving cash flow sustainability.
“The Company expects its cash position to be sufficient to fund its current operating plan into the fourth quarter of 2026.”
“The Company expects its cash position to be sufficient to fund its current operating plan into the fourth quarter of 2026.”
“The Company expects its cash position to be sufficient to fund its current operating plan into the second half of 2026.”
Focus on improving net income, as evidenced by the shift from negative to positive figures.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company reported a net income of $5.0 million in 2026-Q1, a significant improvement from previous quarters where net income was negative. This indicates a positive trajectory in financial performance.
“Net income was $5.0 million, or $0.31 per basic share and $0.30 per diluted share, for the three months ended March 31, 2026.”
Why it matters: If sector growth rebounds, CalciMedica could do better in the market.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth shows a return to above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to decline below 10% year over year.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. Market Value of Listed Securities On March 13, 2026, CalciMedica, Inc. (the “Company”) received notice (the “Notice”) from The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) that the Company is not in compliance with Nasdaq’s Listing Rule 5550(b)(2), as the market value of listed securities (the “MVLS Requirement”) for the Company’s common stock had been below the minimum MVLS Requirement of $35,000,000 f…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026, CalciMedica, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the years ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 to this report, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities…
Other Events. On January 28, 2026, the Company announced the Trial Discontinuation. During a prescheduled interim data review, the IDMC identified a safety concern that, in its view, warrants reevaluation of the study design, particularly with respect to patient enrollment criteria. There were no deaths in the trial that were assessed by investigators or the Company as being related to study drug (either Auxora or placebo). In addition, no serious adverse events met the criteria for expedited…
Other Events. On January 28, 2026, CalciMedica, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the discontinuation of its Phase 2 KOURAGE clinical trial following a recommendation from the trial’s Independent Data Monitoring Committee. In connection with the discontinuation of the KOURAGE trial and the resulting reduction in planned operating expenses, the Company is updating its financial guidance. The Company now expects that its existing cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments will be sufficien…