Reading BDTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BDTX free→Reading BDTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BDTX free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 86% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If BDTX cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.68 BDTX trades at 1× p/s, below its 10× p/s peer median. Our $12 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 86% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.21 → $-0.20 (+6.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$267.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$690.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,550.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Maintain sufficient cash to fund operations into 2028
Positive data supports FDA path and funding objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. announced its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BDTX Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ensure cash, cash equivalents, and investments are sufficient to fund operating expenses and capital expenditures into the second half of 2028.
Other Events. On May 21, 2026, the Company announced results from its Phase 2 trial of silevertinib in frontline (“1L”) non-small cell lung cancer (“NSCLC”) patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (“EGFR”) non-classical mutations (“NCMs”). Silevertinib 1L NSCLC Phase 2 Results Summary Forty-three frontline NSCLC patients harboring a broad spectrum of EGFR-NCMs, including compound and P-Loop and C-Helix Compressing (“PACC”) mutations, were enrolled, including 19 patients with brain meta…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 16, 2026, Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. announced its financial results for the year and three months ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 3, 2025, Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release titled “Black Diamond Therapeutics Announces Preliminary Phase 2 Data for Silevertinib in 1L NSCLC and Plans for a Phase 2 Trial of Silevertinib in GBM” and posted an updated corporate presentation to its website at https://investors.blackdiamondtherapeutics.com/events-presentations, which press release and presentation included updated financial guidance…
Other Events. On December 3, 2025, the Company announced topline data from its Phase 2 trial of silevertinib in 1L NSCLC patients with non-classical epidermal growth factor receptor (“EGFR”) mutations and outlined plans for a randomized Phase 2 trial of silevertinib in patients with newly diagnosed GBM. Silevertinib Phase 2 1L NSCLC Initial Clinical Results and Program Update 43 frontline NSCLC patients harboring a broad spectrum of 35 distinct non-classical EGFR mutations were enrolled, incl…