Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$1.88-9.62%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.195
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	8.33M
EPS	—	-0.616
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.85M
EPS	—	-0.953

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain sufficient cash to fund operations into 2028	The company aims to maintain cash to fund operations into 2028 with $118.3 million as of 2026-Q1.	Intact	cash falls below $100 million before H2 2028	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Positive clinical trial data and FDA approval path for silevertinib	Black Diamond is advancing its tumor-agnostic therapies with positive lung cancer data.	Improving	failure to advance FDA approval or negative Phase 3 results by end 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reduce losses and improve earnings trajectory	A supporting condition in Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -$0.63 in 2026 to less negative or breakeven by 2028.	Broken	EPS loss worsens beyond -$1.0 per share by 2028	Diluted EPS: $-0.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows from -$0.63 in 2026 to less negative or breakeven by 2028. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-0.17 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4082deb5-3cea-42a0-b0a8-56418e4a7ab2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.95

$-1.16 → $-0.95 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.00B

$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.16	$0	5 / 8
2026-07-25	$-1.16	$0	5 / 8
2026-07-26	$-1.16	$0	5 / 8
2026-07-27	$-1.16	$0	5 / 8
2026-07-28	$-1.16	$0	5 / 8
2026-07-29	$-1.16	$0	5 / 8
2026-07-30	$-1.16	$0	5 / 8
2026-07-31	$-1.16	$0	5 / 8
2026-08-01	$-1.00	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-02	$-1.00	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-03	$-1.16	$0	5 / 8
2026-08-04	$-1.16	$0	5 / 8
2026-08-05	$-1.16	$0	5 / 8
2026-08-06	$-1.16	$0	5 / 8
2026-08-07	$-0.93	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-08	$-1.15	$0	5 / 8
2026-08-09	$-1.15	$0	5 / 8
2026-08-10	$-1.15	$0	5 / 8
2026-08-11	$-1.06	$0	5 / 8
2026-08-12	$-1.00	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-13	$-1.00	$0	6 / 9
2026-08-14	$-0.93	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-15	$-0.93	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$-0.93	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$-0.93	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$-0.93	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$-0.93	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$-0.93	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$-0.93	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-19	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-20	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-21	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$-0.95	$2,845,286	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	1
2026-06-01	8	1
2026-07-01	8	1
2026-08-01	8	1
2026-09-01	7	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain sufficient cash to fund operations into 2028Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Positive clinical trial data and FDA approval path for silevertinibDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Reduce losses and improve earnings trajectoryPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-66.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BDTX is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology company, meaning its business depends on medicines still being tested. The thesis is in a watch state, with low confidence and a muted response to recent events.

What's priced into Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc

The available valuation signal describes BDTX as cheap versus peers, though confidence in that comparison is low. The evidence suggests weak execution is recognized, but it does not show that all business risks are reflected in expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the next few quarters, clinical progress is the main fundamental support: management reported positive Phase 2 results for silevertinib in frontline NSCLC and is starting a trial in EGFRvIII-positive GBM. Cash and investments declined to $110.5 million by 2026-Q2, while management continues to state that funding should last into the second half of 2028; expense control is mixed, and recent performance remains below the industry cohort.

What Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued clinical progress and whether upcoming FDA feedback supports development plans. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could add pressure, while stronger results and guidance from major Healthcare companies could support sector momentum.