Reading ATMU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATMU free→Reading ATMU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATMU free→NYSEIndustrialsAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact ATMU's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $51.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 ATMU trades at 18× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $67 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.78 → $0.77 (-1.3% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$161.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$338.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,030.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An increase would show Atmus is confident in its cash flow and growth strategy.
Confirms:Quarterly dividend announced at more than $0.055 per share.
Disproves:No increase in the quarterly dividend amount.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ATMU yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 8, 2026, the Board of Directors of Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Kevin Carpenter, 52, as Senior Vice President & Chief Supply Chain Officer of the Company, effective May 11, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing this appointment is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by r…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ATMU Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | low |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic acquisitions and market expansion.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency gains.
Commit to increasing dividend per share to return value to shareholders.
Why it matters: This growth signal shows Atmus is combining Koch Filter and boosting sales.
Confirms:Q2 net sales growth exceeds 10% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth is below 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 13, 2026, Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $0.055 per common share, payable on June 10, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 26, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information furnished in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, is not deemed to be “filed” for purpo…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (“the Company”) issued the attached press release reporting its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is not deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange A…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 13, 2026, Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (“the Company”) issued the attached press release reporting its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is not deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 5, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Heath Sharp as a director of the Company, and determined Mr. Sharp qualifies as an “independent director” for purposes of the New York Stock Exchange listing standards. Mr. Sharp will serve as a Class III director with a term ex…