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Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$7.49-1.19%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 78% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Market cap
- $489.07M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2018-08-30
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$34.10consensus
Range $31.11 – $37.09
vs price: -78% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$5.43consensus
Range $4.71 – $6.14
vs price: +38% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $7.49 ARVN trades at 3× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $33 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $10–$20. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
2.6x
peer 9.4x · own history —
Premium
0.3x peer
Growth the price needs
-78%
our forecast -60%
Our fair value
$33.29
range $30.40 – $36.18
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 78% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -60%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
34th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 1.15x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish13 analysts, 50% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.27 → $-0.27 (+2.2% / 30d). 9 raised, 3 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$208.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$493.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,953.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ARVN yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting ARVN and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ARVN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-12), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If ARVN beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +7% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If ARVN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-12), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping ARVN and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0215d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Following a strategic review of its pipeline, the Company has made the decision to re-prioritize its portfolio. As previously disclosed, in the second quarter of 2026, the Company announced that it had completed dose escalation enrollment of the Phase 1 clinical trial evaluating ARV-806 in patients with solid tumors harboring Kirsten rat sarcoma ("KRAS") G12D mutations. The Company is planning to complete this Phase 1 monotherapy dose escalation clinical trial and share clinical…
Product or strategy shiftneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+4.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.