Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$7.30-5.44%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Arvinas, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	15.51M
EPS	—	-0.869
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	296.1M
EPS	—	-0.041
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	63.08M
EPS	—	-3.32

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Stable leadership after recent CEO and CMO departures	A supporting condition in Arvinas, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures through FY26.	Under Pressure	Additional key executive departures before FY27	1 key exec departure vs 0 allowed Form 8-K Item 5.02 confirms CMO Noah Berkowitz left to pursue other opportunities on June 22, 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete ARV-806 Phase 1 trial and reprioritize pipeline	Arvinas is focusing on its drug pipeline and trial completion.	Improving	Trial completion delayed beyond FY26 or no pipeline progress	Phase 1 dose escalation enrollment completed in Q2 2026 vs target by end 2026 Q2 2026 8-K confirms ARV-806 Phase 1 dose escalation enrollment is complete; company plans to finish the trial and share data. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Commercial success of FDA-approved VEPPANU drug	The FDA approved its drug VEPPANU for breast cancer.	Improving	VEPPANU sales fail to grow or decline by FY27	Revenue: $249.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: VEPPANU drives meaningful revenue growth by FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026249,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f06a0f05-28fc-4da2-bee2-9bc89db2db89. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth from Rigel Pharmaceuticals partnership	It has a new partnership with Rigel Pharmaceuticals.	Improving	Revenue declines more than 16% in FY27	Revenue growth: 1,014.73% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Sustain revenue growth above -16% next year. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20261,014.732143 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f06a0f05-28fc-4da2-bee2-9bc89db2db89. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management executed a license agreement with Rigel Pharmaceuticals granting exclusive global rights to VEPPANU, supporting commercialization efforts. The transaction is progressing with necessary approvals, consistent with management's growth strategy. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-3.32

$-3.33 → $-3.32 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.06B

$0.07B → $0.06B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-07-25	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-07-26	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-07-27	$-3.44	$74,107,666	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-07-29	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-07-30	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-07-31	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-08-01	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-08-02	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-08-03	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-08-04	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-08-05	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-08-06	$-3.25	$83,603,410	11 / 11
2026-08-07	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 9
2026-08-08	$-3.26	$68,079,540	11 / 14
2026-08-09	$-3.26	$68,079,540	11 / 14
2026-08-10	$-3.26	$68,079,540	11 / 14
2026-08-11	$-3.26	$68,079,540	11 / 14
2026-08-12	$-3.12	$67,894,340	11 / 13
2026-08-13	$-3.12	$67,894,340	11 / 13
2026-08-14	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 9
2026-08-15	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 10
2026-08-16	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 10
2026-08-17	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 10
2026-08-18	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 10
2026-08-19	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 10
2026-08-20	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 10
2026-08-21	$-3.46	$51,650,305	10 / 10
2026-08-22	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-23	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-24	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-25	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-26	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-27	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-28	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-29	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-30	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-08-31	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-01	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-02	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-03	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-04	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-05	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-06	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-07	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-08	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-09	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-10	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-11	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-12	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-13	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-14	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-15	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-16	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-17	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-18	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-19	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-20	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-21	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-22	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-23	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-24	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-25	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-26	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-27	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-28	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-29	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-30	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-01	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-02	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-03	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-04	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-05	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-06	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-07	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-08	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-09	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-10	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-11	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-12	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-13	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-14	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-15	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-16	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-17	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-18	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-19	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-20	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-21	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-22	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-23	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-24	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	8	1
2026-06-01	10	8	1
2026-07-01	9	7	1
2026-08-01	8	8	1
2026-09-01	7	8	1
2026-10-01	7	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Stable leadership after recent CEO and CMO departuresPublished status: Under Pressure
Commercial success of FDA-approved VEPPANU drugRevenue: $249.7M
Revenue growth from Rigel Pharmaceuticals partnershipRevenue growth: 1,014.73%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Arvinas, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ARVN is a high-risk clinical-stage biotechnology company with commercialization optionality, meaning future value depends in part on outcomes that are not yet assured. The long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.

What's priced into Arvinas, Inc.

The evidence suggests ARVN trades at a premium to peers, with valuation supported by expectations for future opportunities rather than established earnings. The expectations gap is modest, but model confidence is low, so the valuation picture is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent financial performance is strong, helped by VEPPANU approval and licensing, which contributed to a sharp increase in quarterly revenue. ARVN remains loss-making, cash has declined, and management says it can fund operations into the second half of 2028. Erratic earnings surprises and a high-miss-rate industry make the next report a meaningful risk.

What Arvinas, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on VEPPANU commercialization, clinical progress across the early-stage pipeline, and management preserving the stated cash runway. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on the business outlook, while strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.