Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-09
$8.76-3.52%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Arvinas is focusing on its drug pipeline and trial completion. It has a new partnership with Rigel Pharmaceuticals. The FDA approved its drug VEPPANU for breast cancer. Revenue grew from $9.5M to $15.6M recently.
Arvinas is still losing money and revenue is expected to fall 16%. The CEO and chief medical officer left recently. The company cut 15% of its workforce last year.
The price is about 52% below our fair value near $18. Analysts expect revenue to fall about 16% next year.
Breaks if: Additional key executive departures before FY27
Breaks if: Trial completion delayed beyond FY26 or no pipeline progress
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently loss-making but has shown strong recent financial performance, driven by FDA approval and revenue growth from its product VEPPANU.
The market currently prices ARVN as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap suggesting that investors may not fully appreciate its growth potential. However, the low model confidence indicates that there is uncertainty about future performance.
Management is focused on advancing their clinical pipeline and maintaining financial discipline, but risks remain elevated. The near-term risk of missing earnings is notable, given the company's history of erratic earnings surprises.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain guidance, the performance of key sector peers, and the overall economic environment impacting healthcare stocks. Any negative developments in these areas could weigh on ARVN's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 18.8 points (from 28.3 to 47.1).
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: VEPPANU sales fail to grow or decline by FY27
Breaks if: Revenue declines more than 16% in FY27
In the next 1 to 3 years, ARVN's prospects will depend on its execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.