Reading ARDX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARDX free→Reading ARDX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARDX free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak and earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.68 ARDX trades at 3× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 69% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 35%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.62x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.03 → $-0.04 (-37.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$467.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,354.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth speeds up, it could help Ardelyx's performance. A strong sector supports individual companies.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth rises back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth is slowing down below current levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ARDX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Ardelyx, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be considered “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), n…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ARDX Ardelyx, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving XPHOZAH revenue between $110 million and $120 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has set a revenue target for XPHOZAH between $110 million and $120 million for 2026. With revenue guidance consistently reiterated, the trajectory is focused on achieving this target.
“Guidance: 'XPHOZAH revenue between $110.0 and $120.0 million.'”
“XPHOZAH Revenue $110-120”
Target IBSRELA revenue to be between $270 million and $275 million for the fiscal year 2025.
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. The company set a revenue target for IBSRELA between $270 million and $275 million for 2025. With the guidance raised, the focus was on achieving this target, and the trajectory was aligned with the raised expectations.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, Ardelyx, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be considered “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Ex…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 8, 2026, Ardelyx, Inc. (the “Company”) announced: • Unaudited U.S. net product sales revenue of IBSRELA ® (tenapanor) of approximately $87 million for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, and approximately $274 million for the full year ended December 31, 2025. • Unaudited U.S. net product sales revenue of XPHOZAH ® (tenapanor) of approximately $28 million for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, and approximately $104 mi…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On December 17, 2025, Elizabeth Grammer informed Ardelyx, Inc. (the “Company”) of her resignation as the Company’s Chief Legal and Administrative Officer, effective December 31, 2025 (the “Resignation Date”). In connection with Ms. Grammer’s resignation from her executive role with the Company, on December 17, 2025, the Company and Ms. Grammer enter…
shall not be considered “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any future filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, unless the Company expressly sets forth in such future filing that such information is to be considered “filed” or incorporated by reference therein.
“IBSRELA guidance raised, 2025 revenue expected to be between $270-275 million”