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Next print, the company's guidance track record, and the earnings events we've seen in the last few years.
Likelihood the company beats analyst consensus on its next print. Read from its own beat history plus how sector peers have been reporting. Not a price-direction call: a serial beater often has the beat already priced in.
Prints it beat consensus, recent quarters.
Indicative, not a guarantee. Base rate ~71%.
Industry peers that beat since this name last reported.
Management's most recent EPS guidance action.
expected = 0.35*own_median(25.0) + peer(0.2*1.4) + term(0.0) → 9.04% (capped ±15.0)
Calibrated likelihood the company misses analyst consensus on its next print, read from its own miss history plus its industry base rate. A fundamental tilt, not a price call — and a quiet watch-flag, not an alarm.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Calibrated. Base rate ~24%.
Consecutive quarters it missed, most recent run.
How often this industry misses, baseline.
Industry peers that missed in the recent window.
Average absolute move on past earnings days.
Annualized: recent baseline volatility.
Of the last 0 guided quarters.
Actual vs. guided EPS, signed.
Excess return vs. sector ETF, day after print.
Earnings prints and pre-announcements detected in the SEC filing stream.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Ardelyx, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be considered “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), n…
Quarterly EPS and revenue actuals vs. consensus across the last eight quarters (including beat/miss size and the forward consensus heading into the next print) are on the way.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, Ardelyx, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be considered “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Ex…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 8, 2026, Ardelyx, Inc. (the “Company”) announced: • Unaudited U.S. net product sales revenue of IBSRELA ® (tenapanor) of approximately $87 million for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, and approximately $274 million for the full year ended December 31, 2025. • Unaudited U.S. net product sales revenue of XPHOZAH ® (tenapanor) of approximately $28 million for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, and approximately $104 mi…
shall not be considered “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any future filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, unless the Company expressly sets forth in such future filing that such information is to be considered “filed” or incorporated by reference therein.
shall not be considered “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any future filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, unless the Company expressly sets forth in such future filing that such information is to be considered “filed” or incorporated by reference therein.
shall not be considered “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any future filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, unless the Company expressly sets forth in such future filing that such information is to be considered “filed” or incorporated by reference therein.
shall not be considered “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any future filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, unless the Company expressly sets forth in such future filing that such information is to be considered “filed” or incorporated by reference therein.