Reading ARCT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARCT free→Reading ARCT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARCT free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 74% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.33 ARCT trades at 3× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $28 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 74% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -60%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.74x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.03 → $-1.03 (+0.1% / 30d). 7 raised, 3 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$252.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$683.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,453.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Risk is high, and earnings quality is characterized as loss-making. Recent financial performance is weak, and management has a neutral stance with a capital unfriendly approach.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth speeds up, it may benefit Arcturus. This could signal a better market environment.
Confirms:Health care revenue growth accelerates back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Health care revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below current levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ARCT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective May 1, 2026, Dennis Mulroy, 71, was appointed Chief Financial Officer of the Company. Mr. Mulroy will become the Company’s principal financial officer on the date immediately following the date on which the Company files its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026. The Board of Directors of the Company approved M…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ARCT Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ensure sufficient cash reserves to extend the company's operational runway beyond the second quarter of 2028.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management has emphasized maintaining a cash runway beyond Q2 2028. However, the financials show a net income loss of $26.96M in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in achieving this priority. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“we continue to have a cash runway extending beyond the second quarter of 2028.”
Focus on reducing operating income losses to improve financial stability.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income losses have persisted, with a loss of $28.93M in 2026-Q1 compared to $31.31M in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress in reducing these losses.
“Operating income was reported as a loss of $28.93M.”
“Operating income was reported as a loss of $31.31M.”
“Operating income was reported as a loss of $16.51M.”
Focus on increasing revenue to enhance financial performance.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue decreased significantly from $7.20M in 2025-Q4 to $2.06M in 2026-Q1, indicating a declining trajectory in revenue generation efforts.
Why it matters: The next earnings call will provide updates on financial health and future plans. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Confirms one read:Look for the next earnings date announcement. It should have positive guidance or better metrics.
Confirms the other:No announcement of the next earnings date is a bad sign. It means continued losses.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the Press Release, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). In addition, this information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commissio…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the Press Release, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. In addition, this information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), except as shall be expressly…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 11, 2025, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) and Andy Sassine, Chief Financial Officer of the Company and a member of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”), mutually agreed to end their employment relationship in an amicable manner effective December 31, 2025 (the “Separation Date”). Mr…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the Press Release, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. In addition, this information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), except as shall be expressly…
“Revenue decreased to $2.06M.”
“Revenue was $7.20M.”
“Revenue was $17.15M.”