Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. (ARCT)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.84-8.29%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	4.97M
EPS	—	-0.907
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	17.86M
EPS	—	-3.425
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	19.65M
EPS	—	-3.718

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain cash runway beyond Q2 2028	This partnership and cash runway give hope for recovery.	Intact	Cash runway falls below Q2 2028	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management consistently emphasizes maintaining a cash runway beyond Q2 2028. Cash and cash equivalents declined from $213.4 million at 2026-Q1 to $191.5 million at 2026-Q2, reflecting ongoing clinical development spend. The trajectory shows disciplined capital allocation sustaining runway as promised. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Reduce operating losses toward breakeven	They are working to reduce operating losses which improved slightly from -$33.4M to -$28.9M.	Broken	Operating loss worsens beyond -$28.9M	Operating income: $-25.545M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves to at least -$28.9M or better. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026-25,545,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 09ebaeec-a2c0-4f56-b81d-522b56ca6215. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize and grow revenue from recent lows	A primary condition in Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue stabilizes above $2M and grows toward $7.5M quarterly.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2M or declines further	Revenue: $2.959M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue stabilizes above $2M and grows toward $7.5M quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20262,959,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 09ebaeec-a2c0-4f56-b81d-522b56ca6215. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful execution of Thermo Fisher strategic collaboration	Arcturus has a strategic partnership with Thermo Fisher to boost its cystic fibrosis drug.	Intact	Partnership fails to deliver expected benefits or dissolves	Qualitative: Partnership active (Phase III trial) July 2026 news confirms Thermo Fisher partnership for Phase III ARCT-032 cystic fibrosis trial, reinforcing strategic collaboration. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in mid-2026. Management announced a strategic collaboration with Thermo Fisher to provide Phase 3 manufacturing, clinical research, and commercial readiness services for ARCT-032. This is a recent development supporting the Phase 3 advancement priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-3.72

$-3.98 → $-3.72 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.02B

$0.03B → $0.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-3.98	$25,157,427	9 / 10
2026-07-25	$-3.98	$25,157,427	9 / 10
2026-07-26	$-3.98	$25,124,094	9 / 10
2026-07-27	$-3.98	$25,124,094	9 / 10
2026-07-28	$-4.02	$33,035,090	11 / 13
2026-07-29	$-4.02	$33,035,090	11 / 13
2026-07-30	$-4.02	$33,035,090	11 / 13
2026-07-31	$-4.02	$33,035,090	11 / 13
2026-08-01	$-4.02	$33,035,090	11 / 13
2026-08-02	$-4.02	$33,035,090	11 / 13
2026-08-03	$-4.02	$33,035,090	11 / 13
2026-08-04	$-4.02	$33,035,090	11 / 13
2026-08-05	$-4.02	$33,035,090	11 / 13
2026-08-06	$-4.02	$33,035,090	11 / 13
2026-08-07	$-3.98	$25,124,094	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$-4.01	$34,740,590	11 / 12
2026-08-09	$-4.01	$34,740,590	11 / 12
2026-08-10	$-4.01	$34,740,590	11 / 12
2026-08-11	$-3.83	$36,633,510	11 / 10
2026-08-12	$-3.83	$36,633,510	11 / 10
2026-08-13	$-3.78	$29,584,000	11 / 13
2026-08-14	$-3.98	$25,124,094	9 / 10
2026-08-15	$-3.98	$25,124,094	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$-3.98	$25,124,094	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$-3.98	$25,124,094	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$-3.98	$25,124,094	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$-3.98	$25,124,094	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$-3.98	$25,124,094	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$-3.73	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$-3.65	$20,580,096	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$-3.65	$20,580,096	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$-3.65	$20,580,096	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$-3.65	$20,580,096	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$-3.66	$20,583,551	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$-3.66	$20,583,551	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$-3.66	$20,583,551	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$-3.66	$20,583,551	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$-3.66	$20,583,551	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$-3.66	$20,583,551	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$-3.66	$20,583,551	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$-3.66	$20,585,678	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$-3.66	$20,585,678	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$-3.66	$20,585,678	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$-3.66	$20,585,678	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$-3.66	$20,585,678	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$-3.66	$20,585,678	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$-3.66	$20,585,678	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$-3.66	$20,585,678	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$-3.72	$19,649,315	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	3
2026-06-01	10	3
2026-07-01	10	3
2026-08-01	10	3
2026-09-01	11	3
2026-10-01	11	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain cash runway beyond Q2 2028Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Reduce operating losses toward breakevenPublished status: Broken
Stabilize and grow revenue from recent lowsRevenue: $2.959M

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-53.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a loss-making, clinical-stage biotech with a speculative growth profile, not an established earnings compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: ARCT-032 is on schedule, while financial performance remains weak and overall risk is elevated.

What's priced into Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.

The valuation model shows ARCT at a slight premium to peers, with expectations broadly aligned and no flagged fragility. That points to a roughly justified valuation in the snapshot, but it does not remove the uncertainty tied to ongoing losses and clinical execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven: recent financial performance is weak, and the next report carries an elevated miss risk. Over the multi-year view, ARCT-032 enrollment is on schedule and a Thermo Fisher collaboration supports a planned Phase 3 decision in Q4 2026; cash declined from Q1 to Q2 as clinical spending continued, despite management’s stated runway priority beyond Q2 2028.

What Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on ARCT-032 reaching a Phase 3 decision and ARCT-810 data and regulatory plans supporting progress toward a pivotal trial. A guidance cut or further economic weakening would add pressure, while continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.