Reading AP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AP free→Reading AP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AP free→NYSEIndustrialsMetal FabricationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is high. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 74% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 AP trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $45 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 74% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.12x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$421.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$640.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,080.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's decision may impact interest rates and economic growth. This affects industrial demand.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows a stronger economy and possible demand growth.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts or keeps rates the same. This shows economic weakness and lower demand.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Improve operating performance in 2026
Earnings call highlights growth strategies and operational improvements.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into a filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AP Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Closure of the U.K. facility is expected to improve annual EBITDA by $7 to $8 million.
The company aims for ongoing improvement in operating performance throughout 2026.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows consumer demand trends. This affects how much industry produces.
Confirms one read:Retail sales rise a lot. This suggests stronger consumer demand and growth for industries.
Confirms the other:Retail sales fall. This shows weaker consumer demand and challenges for industrial companies.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects overall industrial demand. A strong GDP could signal better performance for Ampco-Pittsburgh.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is revised up. This shows stronger economic activity and more demand for products.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is revised down. This suggests weaker conditions and less demand for products.
is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into a filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) As previously announced, Michael G. McAuley has resigned as Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary of Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (the “Corporation”) effective December 31, 2025, and David G. Anderson, the President of Air & Liquid Systems Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Corporation (“Ai…
is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into a filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On November 5, 2025, Michael G. McAuley notified Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (the “Corporation”) of his intention to resign as Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary of the Corporation effective December 31, 2025. Commencing January 1, 2026, Mr. McAuley is expected to remain employed by the Corporatio…