Reading ALMS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALMS free→Reading ALMS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALMS free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 677% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23, ALMS's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 124× p/s (13.2× the 9× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $2.87 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $25–$51. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 702% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.58x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.74 → $-0.71 (+4.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 89.7% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$236.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$661.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,666.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth picks up, it may help Alumis improve its performance.
Confirms:Health care revenue growth speeds up to 10% or more.
Disproves:Health care revenue growth keeps slowing down below current levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALMS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, and shall not be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$25.00 – $51.00 (median $39.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-19
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALMS Alumis, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Alumis plans to submit a New Drug Application to the FDA in the second half of 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Alumis plans to submit a New Drug Application to the FDA in the second half of 2026. No financial data directly ties to this regulatory milestone yet, so progress is pending.
“Alumis plans to submit a New Drug Application to the FDA in the second half of 2026.”
Alumis anticipates its existing cash and securities will fund operations and capex into Q4 2027.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Alumis expects its cash and securities to fund operations into Q4 2027. Operating cash flow was negative $87.1M in 2026-Q1, indicating ongoing cash burn. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“Alumis continues to anticipate that its existing cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of March 31, 2026 are expected to fund operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements int…”
“Alumis continues to anticipate that its existing cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of December 31, 2025, as well as net proceeds of $324.4 million, after underwriting discounts and…”
“Alumis continues to anticipate that its existing cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of September 30, 2025 is expected to support advancement of its pipeline through multiple planned…”
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Alumis can improve its loss-making status. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses or a way to make money.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows bigger losses or no clear way to make money.
and Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, and shall not be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Other Events. On March 28, 2026, Alumis Inc. (the “Company” or “Alumis”) issued a press release titled “Alumis’ Envudeucitinib Delivers Early and Robust Improvements in Skin Clearance, Quality of Life and Psoriasis Symptoms in Two Phase 3 Trials, Underscoring Its Potential as a Leading Oral Therapy for Plaque Psoriasis”. The Company is also filing slides presented by the Company at a late-breaking oral presentation at the 2026 American Academy of Dermatology (AAD) Annual Meeting on March 28,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 6, 2026, Alumis, Inc. (the “Company” or “Alumis”) announced that its preliminary unaudited cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of December 31, 2025 were approximately $308.6 million. The preliminary financial data included in this Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Report”) has been prepared by, and is the responsibility of Alumis management. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, the Company’s independent registered public accounti…
Other Events. On January 7, 2026, the Company entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Leerink Partners LLC and Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), relating to the issuance and sale in a public offering of 17,650,000 shares of the Company’s voting common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”). The price to the public in the offering…