Alumis, Inc. (ALMS)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.78-0.59%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alumis, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.9M
EPS	—	-0.731
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	6.4M
EPS	—	-3.265
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	27.04M
EPS	—	-2.819

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Advance clinical pipeline with key data readouts	Alumis is advancing key clinical trials with important data expected in 2026.	Under Pressure	failure to report Phase 2b SLE data by Q3 2026 or psoriasis data in 2H 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Phase 2b LUMUS trial topline data for SLE was anticipated in Q3 2026 but the trial did not meet primary endpoints overall, though a subgroup showed robust responses. ONWARD3 long-term psoriasis data is expected in 2H 2026. The trajectory shows mixed progress with a clear path forward for SLE development. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve earnings towards break-even	A primary condition in Alumis, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is reduce EPS loss from -2.9 in FY26 to less negative or break-even by FY27.	Broken	EPS remains below -2.9 or worsens through FY27	Diluted EPS: $-1.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: reduce EPS loss from -2.9 in FY26 to less negative or break-even by FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026-1.11 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 13dd6b10-e8c0-46b9-a9f0-2fe2936f7a01. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Initiate Phase 2 biomarker trial in Parkinson’s disease	It plans to start a new Phase 2 trial in Parkinson’s disease in early 2027.	Intact	no initiation of Phase 2 Parkinson’s trial by mid-2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management plans to initiate the Phase 2 biomarker trial for A-005 in Parkinson’s disease in 1H 2027. No financial or clinical milestone has yet been reported, indicating early-stage progress consistent with stated plans. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-2.82

$-2.73 → $-2.82 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.03B

$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-2.73	$26,482,401	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$-2.73	$26,482,401	7 / 8
2026-07-26	$-2.73	$26,482,401	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$-2.73	$26,482,401	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$-2.73	$26,482,401	7 / 8
2026-07-29	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-07-30	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-07-31	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-08-01	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-08-02	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-08-03	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-08-04	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-08-05	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-08-06	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-08-07	$-2.73	$26,482,401	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-08-09	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-08-10	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-08-11	$-2.73	$26,482,401	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-08-13	$-2.95	$23,834,860	5 / 10
2026-08-14	$-2.73	$26,482,401	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$-2.73	$26,482,401	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$-2.73	$26,482,401	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$-2.73	$26,482,401	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$-2.73	$26,482,401	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$-2.73	$26,482,401	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$-2.73	$26,482,401	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$-2.80	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$-2.82	$27,037,956	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-19	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-20	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-21	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$-2.82	$27,038,734	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	1
2026-06-01	10	1
2026-07-01	10	1
2026-08-01	10	1
2026-09-01	10	1
2026-10-01	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Advance clinical pipeline with key data readoutsPublished status: Under Pressure
Improve earnings towards break-evenPublished status: Broken
Initiate Phase 2 biomarker trial in Parkinson’s diseaseDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-80.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alumis, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative growth, not an established earnings compounder: ALMS is loss-making, recent performance is weak, and risk is elevated. Its current long-term thesis remains in a watch state, with a mixed signal after a recent earnings miss and a litigation filing.

What's priced into Alumis, Inc.

The valuation model shows ALMS at a 12.81% premium to peers, with low confidence and optionality as the main reason for the gap. That suggests expectations give weight to future pipeline potential, but the evidence does not show exactly how much successful development the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain volatile: the company recently missed earnings, and the stated risk of a miss on the next print is elevated. Over the multi-year view, management remains on track to submit the envudeucitinib application in Q4 2026, while cash declined from the prior quarter and the SLE trial missed its overall primary endpoints despite a positive subgroup result.

What Alumis, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on meeting the Q4 2026 application timeline, producing useful follow-up psoriasis data, and advancing the pipeline without weakening the cash runway. Near-term risks include another guidance cut and a weaker jobs trend; healthcare-sector strength from large peers could provide a favorable backdrop, but it does not resolve company-specific execution risk.