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Albany International Corp. (AIN)
NYSEIndustrialsTextile ManufacturingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$70.32-0.55%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AIN trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair), and the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Textile Manufacturing
- Market cap
- $2.00B
- Employees
- 27,400
- IPO date
- 1994-03-23
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $70.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$69.20consensus
Range $60.57 – $93.97
vs price: +2% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$135.20consensus
Range $97.33 – $164.18
vs price: -48% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $71 AIN trades at 28× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $69 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
28.0x
peer 24.0x · own history 23.4x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
3%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$68.92
range $60.39 – $93.41
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
32nd pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -2.63x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish2 analysts, 0% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.71 → $0.70 (-0.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -15.7% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$157.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$301.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,264.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from full to fair. Risk fell. The sector backdrop changed to a headwind. Earnings quality remains loss-making.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for developments in Machine Clothing focus in China
Why it matters: Progress in this area could enhance growth in a key market. It shows management's strategic direction.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management announces a new deal for Machine Clothing in China.
Disproves:No big updates or problems in the Machine Clothing plan in China.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AIN yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BA, CAT, and UNP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting AIN and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AIN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AIN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like BA, CAT, and UNP start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping AIN and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits AIN and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 Albany International issued a news release reporting first-quarter 2026 financial results. The Company will host a webcast to discuss earnings at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday April 30, 2026. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.