Reading AHCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AHCO free→Reading AHCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AHCO free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The top factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the company's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.96 AHCO trades at 19× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $12 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $11–$18. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -7.53x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.22 → $0.15 (-31.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$115.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$376.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,788.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Lower debt costs can improve profitability and cash flow. This is crucial for funding growth initiatives.
Confirms:Weighted average cost of debt drops by at least 25 basis points after redeeming the Senior Notes.
Disproves:Weighted average cost of debt does not decrease as expected after the redemption.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AHCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 5, 2026, AdaptHealth Corp. (the “Company”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Original Filing”) reporting, among other things, the appointment of Daniel McFadden as Chief Operating Officer of the Company, effective as of May 4, 2026 (the “Appointment Date”). The Original Filing inadvertently reported the Date of Report (Date of earlies…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$11.00 – $18.00 (median $14.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AHCO AdaptHealth Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on raising net revenue guidance and achieving higher revenue figures.
Improve cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Focus on increasing operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: Stabilizing organic revenue growth shows the company can keep growing. This is important for investor trust.
Confirms:Organic revenue growth was over 9% for two straight quarters.
Disproves:Organic revenue growth drops below 5% for two straight quarters.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow means better cash management. This helps with financial stability.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported as positive for the next quarter.
Disproves:Free cash flow remains negative for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: More patients mean strong demand for services. This helps revenue growth and market position.
Confirms:Patient census records for Sleep Health, Respiratory Health, and Wellness at Home continue to rise.
Disproves:Patient census records decline in any of the segments.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is furnished pursuant to Regulation FD. On May 5, 2026, AdaptHealth Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 4, 2026, the Company terminated the employment of Toby Scott Barnhart, the Company’s Chief Operating Officer. Mr. Barnhart will receive severance and other benefits available for a termination by the Company without Cause (as defined in Mr. Barnhart's employment agreement), in accordance with the terms of such employment agreement, which suc…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 10, 2026, AdaptHealth LLC (the “Borrower”), a subsidiary of AdaptHealth Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) among AdaptHealth Intermediate Holdco LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and Borrower’s direct parent (“Intermediate Holdings”), the Borrower, certain wholly-owned subsidiaries of the Borrower, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, the lenders and oth…
Termination of Material Definitive Agreement. On April 10, 2026, the Company repaid in full all outstanding indebtedness under the Prior Credit Agreement and all commitments, guarantees, liens and security interests related to the Prior Credit Agreement was terminated in connection therewith. The Company funded the repayment of its obligations under the Prior Credit Agreement with borrowings under the Credit Agreement. The information set forth in