AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.02-2.43%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AdaptHealth Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	711.41M
EPS	—	-0.027
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.85B–$2.89B	2.88B
EPS	—	-0.203
EBITDA	$490M–$520Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.99B
EPS	—	-0.026

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow reaches about $200 million	Free cash flow is expected to grow to around $200 million.	Broken	Free cash flow falls below $180 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $-20.942M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $200 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-20,942,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash flow from operations was $93.7 million in 2026-Q1 but free cash flow was negative $48.4 million year-to-date 2026, down from $73.3 million prior year. Management maintains free cash flow guidance of $80 million to $120 million for 2026. The trajectory shows mixed progress with cash flow from operations stable but free cash flow under pressure. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to positive territory	AdaptHealth is improving its operating income, turning from a $73M loss to a $5.5M gain.	Broken	Operating income falls below zero next 4 quarters	Operating income: $-137.802M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-137,802,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 05841d1a-cb97-43f8-976e-fd719d00b205. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management completed workforce restructuring generating $19 million in annualized savings in 2026-Q2. However, operating income declined sharply from $65.7 million in 2025-Q2 to a loss of $137.8 million in 2026-Q2, impacted by goodwill impairment and cost pressures. The trajectory shows limited progress on profitability improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Annual revenue reaches about $3.51 billion	The company raised its revenue guidance to about $3.51 billion for 2026.	Broken	Annual revenue falls below $3.18 billion in FY26	Revenue: $740.307M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.51 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026740,307,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 05841d1a-cb97-43f8-976e-fd719d00b205. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$1.17 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.99B

$3.72B → $2.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-07-27	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-07-31	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-08-01	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-08-03	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-08-04	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.17	$3,715,987,890	5 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$3,513,641,890	4 / 7
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$3,066,800,580	3 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$3,066,800,580	3 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$3,066,800,580	3 / 7
2026-08-11	$-0.13	$2,989,986,290	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$-0.13	$2,989,986,290	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$-0.13	$2,989,986,290	5 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$2,989,986,261	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$2,989,986,261	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$2,989,986,261	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$2,989,986,261	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$2,986,843,404	3 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	6	2
2026-07-01	7	2
2026-08-01	7	0
2026-09-01	7	0
2026-10-01	7	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow reaches about $200 millionPublished status: Broken
Operating income improves to positive territoryPublished status: Broken
Annual revenue reaches about $3.51 billionPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-61.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AdaptHealth Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AHCO is a healthcare growth and portfolio-focus story, with management concentrating on Sleep and Respiratory Health. The multi-year view is intact, supported by recent revenue growth, but the business is loss-making and carries high risk.

What's priced into AdaptHealth Corp.

The evidence describes AHCO as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 43% premium versus peers, so the valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, and the market’s pricing is tagged as justified with low fragility; the evidence does not give a clearer account of specific market assumptions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent revenue growth and the completed Diabetes Health sale support management’s focus on core businesses. Cash generation is less settled: year-to-date free cash flow is negative, and management’s 2026 guidance remains in place. A run of earnings misses makes the next report a key execution test.

What AdaptHealth Corp. hinges on

The thesis depends on continued organic growth and progress toward stronger free cash flow. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could add pressure, while strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum. The evidence for these scenarios is medium confidence.