AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$5.70-7.92%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Free cash flow reaches about $200 million: FCF guidance $80M-$120M vs $200M target.
AdaptHealth is improving its operating income, turning from a $73M loss to a $5.5M gain. The company raised its revenue guidance to about $3.51 billion for 2026. Free cash flow is expected to grow to around $200 million. These show progress in cost control and growth focus.
The company is still loss-making and recently missed earnings. Cash from operations dropped sharply from $183M to $94M. Revenue declined in the latest quarter despite raised guidance. These risks could stall the turnaround.
The price is about 30% below our fair value near $14, reflecting elevated risk. Analysts expect about 9% revenue growth, which is roughly in line with company guidance. Our fair value is slightly below the Street median, suggesting cautious optimism.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $180 million in FY26
Breaks if: Operating income falls below zero next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $3.18 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
AHCO represents a growth-oriented investment focused on the Sleep and Respiratory Health sectors. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent revenue growth and strategic expansion efforts.
The market currently prices AHCO as cheap compared to its peers, with a noted expectations gap. This suggests that investors may be cautious but not overly pessimistic about its future performance.
Management has shown a commitment to organic growth, resulting in a notable revenue increase. However, cash flow from operations has declined, and there is a risk of continued earnings misses, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain revenue growth and improve cash flow, as well as external factors like sector performance and economic conditions. Key triggers include guidance changes and broader market trends in the healthcare sector.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings report missed expectations. This miss raises concerns about future performance. There are no new supportive factors to offset this.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AHCO's performance will depend on execution against its strategic priorities and external economic factors. Not investment advice.