Reading ADMA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADMA free→Reading ADMA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADMA free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has taken capital-friendly actions. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.50 ADMA trades at 13× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $18–$24. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.78x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.18 → $0.17 (-3.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 158.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$167.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$509.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,348.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: ASCENIV revenue keeps growing. This shows strong demand and a good market position. The company is handling competition well.
Confirms:ASCENIV revenue grows year over year by more than 28% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:ASCENIV revenue growth is less than 28% year over year in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ADMA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$18.00 – $24.00 (median $21.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADMA ADMA Biologics, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing total revenue through strategic initiatives.
Aim to enhance profitability through operational efficiencies and strategic initiatives.
Improve operational cash flow through strategic and operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps growth and keeps the company healthy. It shows good management of operations.
Confirms:Operating cash flow exceeds $58 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating cash flow falls below $58 million in Q2 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Tade Retirement; CFO Transition On February 20, 2026, Brad Tade notified the Company that he is retiring from his position as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of the Company effective at the close of business on February 25, 2026, following the filing of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 (the “2025 Fo…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
Other Events. On March 2, 2026, the Company entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement (the “ASR Agreement”) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (“JPMorgan”) to repurchase $125 million of shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), as part of the Company’s previously announced $500 million share repurchase program (the “Share Repurchase Program”), as disclosed on the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securiti…