ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.68-2.47%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ADMA Biologics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	158.39M
EPS	—	0.243
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$530M–$560M	535.36M
EPS	—	0.797
EBITDA	$265M–$300Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	629.55M
EPS	—	0.943

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations improves to at least $58 million in Q1 2026	Cash from operations turned positive to $58 million in Q1 2026.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $58 million in Q1 2026	Cash from operations: $29.539M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $58 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202629,539,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income improves to at least $45 million in Q1 2026	Profitability improves with net income rising to $45 million in Q1 2026.	Broken	Net income falls below $45 million in Q1 2026	Net income: $37.822M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $45 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202637,822,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 299ed456-6d69-4a5a-ba4d-06d03eab047e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
FDA label expansion supports revenue growth	FDA label expansion supports future revenue growth.	Intact	Loss or reversal of FDA label expansion benefits	FDA label expansion active (Jun 2026) June 2026 FDA label expansion strongly reinforces revenue growth. No news of regulatory reversal or loss. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total revenue reaches at least $530 million in FY 2026	A primary condition in ADMA Biologics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $530 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $530 million in FY 2026	Revenue: $124.395M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $530 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026124,395,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 299ed456-6d69-4a5a-ba4d-06d03eab047e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.70B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$700,585,200	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$700,585,200	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$700,585,200	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$700,585,200	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$700,585,200	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$700,585,200	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$700,585,200	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$700,585,200	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$700,585,200	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$700,585,200	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$700,585,200	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$700,585,200	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$700,598,000	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$700,598,000	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$699,584,400	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$699,584,400	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$699,584,400	4 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$700,324,400	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$700,324,400	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$700,324,400	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	1
2026-06-01	4	1
2026-07-01	4	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations improves to at least $58 million in Q1 2026Cash from operations: $29.539M
Net income improves to at least $45 million in Q1 2026Published status: Broken
Total revenue reaches at least $530 million in FY 2026Revenue: $124.395M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ADMA Biologics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ADMA is a growth-oriented healthcare business with elevated risk, rather than a clearly established durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance holding in the top half of its industry, while management’s revenue growth and SG-001 development priorities remain areas to watch.

What's priced into ADMA Biologics, Inc.

The evidence describes ADMA as cheap versus peers, with pricing expectations broadly justified and low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, and the available evidence does not suggest the market is pricing in the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results are strong overall, though the latest reported earnings were in line after a prior miss. Management is on track with its 2026 share repurchase target, while revenue growth and SG-001 progress remain watch items. The next report carries meaningful risk: the evidence flags a high-miss-rate industry and a 40% miss probability, alongside a possible guidance cut.

What ADMA Biologics, Inc. hinges on

The near-term downside case depends on a guidance cut or further weakening in the jobs report, which could weigh on cyclical healthcare names. A more favorable sector backdrop depends on healthcare bellwethers continuing to report strong results and raise guidance. Over the multi-year view, execution on revenue growth and SG-001 development remains important, but the evidence offers limited detail on the company’s operating outlook.