Reading XTNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XTNT free→Reading XTNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XTNT free→
AMEXHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on sector trends, particularly how bellwethers like ABT, SYK, and MDT perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.44. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.44, XTNT's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 74× p/e (3.2× the 23× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-36% near-term growth vs our ~14% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.68 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 36% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.02 (-100.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$172.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$514.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,317.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into Xtant's financial health and growth trajectory. This could impact stock performance.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for XTNT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this report (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any registration statement or other document filed by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly provided by specific reference in such a filing. To supplement its…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
XTNT Xtant Medical Holdings Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $101 million to $105 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $95M-$99M to $101M-$105M for 2026. However, revenue declined from $32.36M in 2025-Q4 to $20.88M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards achieving the higher guidance.
“The Company is today increasing its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $101 million to $105 million.”
“The Company anticipates full-year 2026 revenue to be in the range of $95 million to $99 million.”
Completed the sale of Coflex and CoFix products for $17.5 million.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The divestiture of Coflex and CoFix products was completed for $17.5 million. This strategic move is expected to streamline operations, but the immediate financial impact is not reflected in the 2026-Q1 results, where net income was negative $3.09M.
Focus on maintaining positive cash flow from operations.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operations declined from $5.38M in 2025-Q4 to -$2.11M in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in maintaining positive cash flow. The company aims to sustain operations without external capital, but current cash flow trends show limited progress.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it signals a stronger market position for Xtant Medical. This could improve investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now close to 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below current levels.
of this report (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any registration statement or other document filed by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly provided by specific reference in such a fil…
Other Events. As previously announced, on December 1, 2025, Xtant Medical Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) sold certain assets relating to its Coflex and CoFix products and all of the outstanding capital stock of its wholly owned subsidiary engaged in the operation of the Company’s hardware business outside of the United States, Paradigm Spine GmbH (“Paradigm”), to Companion Spine, LLC and/or one of its affiliates, Companion Spine SAS (collectively, “Companion Spine”), for a total aggregate pur…
Other Events. As previously announced, on December 1, 2025, Xtant Medical Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) and Surgalign SPV, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (together with the Company, the “Seller”), completed the sale of certain assets relating to the Company’s Coflex and CoFix products (the “Coflex/CoFix Divestiture”) to Companion Spine, LLC and one of its affiliates, Companion Spine SAS (collectively, “Companion Spine”), for a total purchase price of $17.5 million, subject to…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On December 1, 2025, Xtant Medical Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) and Surgalign SPV, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (together with the Company, the “Seller”), completed the sale of certain assets relating to the Company’s Coflex and CoFix products (the “Coflex/CoFix Divestiture”) to Companion Spine, LLC and one of its affiliates, Companion Spine SAS (“Companion Spine”), pursuant to the previously disclosed Asset Purchase Agre…
“Completed the sale of certain assets relating to the Company’s Coflex and CoFix products for a total purchase price of $17.5 million.”
“Xtant plans to update its full-year 2026 financial guidance in light of the new distribution arrangement.”
“We expect that the net proceeds from this transaction, together with our anticipated cash flows generated from operations, will enable us to continue operating without the need for additional externa…”