Reading VTGN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VTGN free→Reading VTGN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VTGN free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers and the potential for rate cuts from the Fed. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.57 VTGN trades at 25× p/s — 2.6× the 9× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $0.81 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.90x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.30 → $-0.25 (+16.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$273.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$785.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,969.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth picks up, it may help Vistagen's performance. This could signal a better environment for the company.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth shows a rise back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth keeps slowing down below current levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VTGN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 18, 2026 (the “ Effective Date ”), Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc. (the “ Company ”) appointed Angel S. Angelov, M.D., MBA to serve as the Company’s Chief Medical Officer. Dr. Angelov, age 57, served as Chief Medical Officer at Theranica, a neuromodulation therapeutics company, from October 2024 to May 2026. Prior to Theranica, Dr. Angelov serve…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VTGN Vistagen Therapeutics Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 8 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Implement a 20% workforce reduction to manage cash and prioritize clinical studies.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company implemented a 20% workforce reduction to manage cash and prioritize clinical studies. Operating income was negative, with a loss of $19.5M in 2026-Q3, indicating limited progress in cost management so far.
“Implemented a Board approved reduction in its workforce by approximately 20%.”
Address non-compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5605(c)(2) regarding audit committee composition.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company is addressing non-compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5605(c)(2) regarding audit committee composition. This regulatory issue remains unresolved, with no financial improvement evident in the latest results.
“Notified Nasdaq of its current non-compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5605(c)(2).”
Expect topline results from the PALISADE-4 Phase 3 trial for fasedienol in the first half of 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company anticipates topline results from the PALISADE-4 Phase 3 trial for fasedienol in the first half of 2026. Revenue remains low at $303K in 2026-Q3, indicating limited progress in product commercialization so far.
“Expects topline results from its PALISADE-4 Phase 3 trial in the first half of 2026.”
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing On April 1, 2026, Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc. (the “ Company ”) notified The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“ Nasdaq ”) of its current non-compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5605(c)(2), which requires the Audit Committee of a Nasdaq-listed company to have at least three members from its Board of Directors, each meeting independence and certain other criteria. As disclosed in the Company’s Current Re…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 7, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc. (the “ Company ”), in consultation with the Company’s independent compensation consultant, approved of retention awards in the form of a stock option grant (the “ Options ”) to all Company employees, including the following executives who each rece…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensation Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 17, 2026, Mary Rotunno resigned from the Board of Directors of Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc., effective April 1, 2026. Signatures Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized. Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc.…
Other Events On March 5, 2026, Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc. (the “ Company ”) implemented a Board approved reduction in its workforce by approximately 20%. The reduction is intended to provide disciplined cash management while prioritizing efficient execution of ongoing clinical studies in the Company’s PALISADE Program for fasedienol for the acute treatment of social anxiety disorder. The Company expects topline results from its PALISADE-4 Phase 3 trial in the first half of 2026 and expects c…