Reading VRSK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRSK free→Reading VRSK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRSK free→NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although VRSK trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential cuts to guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers, as these could significantly impact VRSK's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $179.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $180 VRSK trades at 25× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $193 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $223–$260. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.93 → $1.93 (+0.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 7 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$156.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$307.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,957.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this growth rate would show Verisk is on track with its financial guidance for 2026.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 4.0% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 3.0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VRSK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Verisk Analytics, Inc. (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is annexed as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. All information in the press release is furnished but not filed.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$223.00 – $260.00 (median $230.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-04-30
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Research & Consulting Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VRSK Verisk Analytics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EFX Equifax | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | elevated |
TRU TransUnion | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BAH Booz Allen Hamilton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCN FTI Consulting | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Verisk continues to reaffirm its financial guidance for the year 2026.
Verisk has initiated a $1.5 billion accelerated share repurchase program.
Verisk plans to increase its dividend to $2.00 per share for the year 2026.
Verisk plans to maintain its capital expenditures within the guided range for 2026.
Verisk aims to achieve earnings growth in line with its long-term targets.
Why it matters: A drop could mean operational problems and hurt future cash flow.
Confirms:Net cash from operating activities falls more than 12.2% in Q2.
Disproves:Net cash from operating activities rises or falls less than 12.2%.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to Verisk's financial health. A drop signals potential issues.
Confirms:Q2 organic constant currency revenue growth was below 4.7%.
Disproves:Q2 organic constant currency revenue growth was at or above 4.7%.
Why it matters: The dividend increase shows good financial results. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:The company will announce the dividend increase to $2.00 per share.
Disproves:Announcement of a dividend lower than $2.00 per share.
Why it matters: A bigger drop may show cash flow problems. This can affect future investments and dividends.
Confirms:Free cash flow declines more than 16.5% in Q2.
Disproves:Free cash flow declines less than or stabilizes in Q2.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow shows improved cash management. It also shows better operations.
Confirms:Q2 free cash flow reported above $350 million.
Disproves:Q2 free cash flow reported below $300 million.
Why it matters: Finishing this program shows good use of money. It also shows confidence in the company.
Confirms:The company will announce the end of the $1.5 billion share repurchase program.
Disproves:No completion announcement by the end of Q3 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Credit Agreement On February 18, 2026, Verisk Analytics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Term Credit Agreement (the “Term Credit Agreement”) among the Company, the lenders party thereto, and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent. The Term Credit Agreement provides for a 364-day senior unsecured delayed draw term loan facility in an aggregate principal amount of $500,000,000 (the “Term Facility”). The availability o…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, Verisk Analytics, Inc. (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is annexed as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. All information in the press release is furnished but not filed.
Other Events. On February 23, 2026, the Company entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) by and among the Company and BofA Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC as representatives of the underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to sell to the Underwriters $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.450% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”) and $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.125% Sen…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 23, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing entering into the ASR Agreements, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. All information in the press release is furnished but not filed. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements . This Current Report on 8-K contains forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events or to future financial performance and involve known and unknown…