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NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$179.61-0.47%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although VRSK trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential cuts to guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers, as these could significantly impact VRSK's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Consulting Services
- Market cap
- $24.08B
- Employees
- 8,000
- IPO date
- 2008-08-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $179.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$196.91consensus
Range $188.28 – $235.08
vs price: -9% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$332.59consensus
Range $276.23 – $352.88
vs price: -46% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $180 VRSK trades at 25× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $193 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $223–$260. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
24.9x
peer 26.4x · own history 36.1x
Premium
0.9x peer
0.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
-7%
our forecast 12%
Our fair value
$193.20
range $187.10 – $235.21
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
72nd pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
56th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral16 analysts, 53% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.93 → $1.93 (+0.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 7 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.headwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$156.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$307.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,957.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth to meet or exceed 4.0%
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this growth rate would show Verisk is on track with its financial guidance for 2026.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 4.0% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 3.0% year over year.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VRSK yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like EFX, BAH, and FCN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting VRSK and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If VRSK raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If VRSK cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like EFX, BAH, and FCN start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping VRSK and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits VRSK and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Verisk Analytics, Inc. (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is annexed as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. All information in the press release is furnished but not filed.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.