Reading EXPO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXPO free→Reading EXPO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXPO free→NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, EXPO is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $57.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $57 EXPO trades at 27× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median. Our $50 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.60 (+0.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$121.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$288.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,245.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if Exponent can maintain growth momentum in a tough market.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth guidance meets or exceeds high-single digits, around 8% or more.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth guidance falls below high-single digits, under 8%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EXPO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Exponent, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended April 3, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Research & Consulting Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EXPO Exponent, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
VRSK Verisk Analytics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EFX Equifax | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | elevated |
TRU TransUnion | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BAH Booz Allen Hamilton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Exponent has increased its share repurchase authorization by $50 million, adding to the existing $17.7 million.
Exponent continues to increase its quarterly cash dividend, with the latest set at $0.31 per share.
Exponent aims to enhance operating income, with a focus on improving financial performance.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows financial health and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:The dividend of $0.31 per share is paid as scheduled.
Disproves:The dividend payment is delayed or reduced.
Why it matters: A dividend increase would show strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend announced is higher than $0.31 per share.
Disproves:Dividend remains at or below $0.31 per share.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Exponent can enhance operating income as planned. This is key for future growth.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows operating income growth year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows operating income decline year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change strategy and performance. This can affect investor trust.
Confirms one read:The leadership roles changed successfully. The new President and CFO gave positive comments.
Confirms the other:Investors and analysts are not happy about the leadership change.
Why it matters: More buybacks can show management's trust in the company's value and future.
Confirms:They announce share buybacks of at least $50 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:No share buybacks are announced or done in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Completing this buyback shows confidence in the company's value and can support share price.
Confirms:The company finished its $50 million share buyback program.
Disproves:There is no news about finishing or delaying the share buyback program.
Why it matters: This margin shows how well Exponent manages costs while growing revenue.
Confirms:Q2 EBITDA margin reported within the 27.0% to 27.8% range.
Disproves:The Q2 EBITDA margin was below 27.0%.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 30, 2026, Exponent, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.31 per share to be paid on June 18, 2026, to all common stockholders of record as of June 5, 2026. The Board of Directors also authorized an additional $50 million for share repurchases. This is in addition to the $17.7 million available for repurchase as of April 3, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the dividend and additional share repurch…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of John D. Pye, Ph.D. On April 6, 2026, Exponent, Inc.’s (the “Company”) board of directors (the “Board”) appointed Dr. Pye as its President, effective as of May 1, 2026. Dr. Pye, age 55, joined the Company in 1999. He was promoted to Principal Engineer in 2006 and was appointed Corporate Vice President in 2009. Dr. Pye was appointed Gr…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Exponent, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter ended January 2, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 5, 2026, Exponent, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.31 per share to be paid on March 20, 2026, to all common stockholders of record as of March 6, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the dividend is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated herein by reference.