Reading CRAI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRAI free→Reading CRAI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRAI free→NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $147.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $148 CRAI trades at 18× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $198 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.84x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.08 → $2.15 (+3.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$163.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$461.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,812.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in sector revenue growth can affect CRA's performance. Faster growth could mean better times ahead.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up above 5% after June 25.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to decline below 5% after June 25.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRAI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026 , we issued a press release reporting our financial results for our fiscal quarter ended April 4, 2026. A copy of the press release is set forth as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. On May 7, 2026 , we also posted on our website supplemental financial information, including prepared CFO remarks. A copy of the supplemental financial information is set forth as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated by reference herein. The…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Research & Consulting Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CRAI CRA International, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | elevated |
VRSK Verisk Analytics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EFX Equifax | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | elevated |
TRU TransUnion | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BAH Booz Allen Hamilton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Reaffirming full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance in the range of $785 million to $805 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue in 2026-Q1 was $200.975M, indicating progress towards the full-year guidance of $785M to $805M. The trajectory is delivering against the stated guidance.
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for full-year fiscal 2026 of revenue in the range of $785 million to $805 million.”
“For full-year fiscal 2026, on a constant-currency basis relative to fiscal 2025, we expect revenue in the range of $785 million to $805 million.”
“We are raising our revenue guidance and increasing the lower end of our profit guidance.”
Reaffirming full-year fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EBITDA margin guidance in the range of 12% to 13%.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently maintained its non-GAAP EBITDA margin guidance of 12% to 13% for 2026. The financials do not provide specific margin data for verification, indicating limited progress visibility.
“We expect non-GAAP EBITDA margin in the range of 12.0% to 13.0%.”
Board authorized a $55 million expansion to the existing share repurchase program.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The Board authorized a $55M expansion to the share repurchase program. Financials do not indicate buyback activity, suggesting limited progress in executing the expanded program.
“Our Board of Directors authorized a $55.0 million expansion to our existing share repurchase program.”
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if CRA's revenue growth is stabilizing or declining. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth speeding up above 5%.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth declining below 5%.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 7, 2026 , we announced that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on our common stock of $0.57 per share to be paid on June 12, 2026 to all shareholders of record as of May 26, 2026. A copy of the press release is set forth as Exhibit 99.3 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 27, 2026, William Concannon informed the board of directors (the “Board”) of CRA International, Inc. (the “Company”) that he will be retiring as a director of the Board effective as of the adjournment of the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”), which is scheduled for July 16, 2026. Mr. Concannon’s notice of retiremen…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, we issued a press release reporting our financial results for our fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended January 3, 2026. A copy of the press release is set forth as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. On February 26, 2026, we also posted on our website supplemental financial information, including prepared CFO remarks. A copy of the supplemental financial information is set forth as Exhibit 99.2 and incorpor…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 26, 2026, we announced that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on our common stock of $0.57 per share to be paid on March 20, 2026 to all shareholders of record as of March 10, 2026. A copy of the press release is set forth as Exhibit 99.3 and is incorporated by reference herein. Also on February 26, 2026, we announced that our Board of Directors authorized a $55.0 million expansion to our existing share repurchase program, in addit…
“We expect non-GAAP EBITDA margin in the range of 12.0% to 13.0%.”
“Non-GAAP EBITDA margin in the range of 12.6% to 13.0%.”