NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Verisk Analytics grows revenue about 7% yearly, guided near $3.2B in 2026. Profit per share is expected around $7.60. The company returns value with a $1.5B share buyback and a $2.00 dividend. Recent acquisitions strengthen its data analytics edge.
AI may weaken Verisk's data moat, making its analytics less unique. Revenue growth is modest and could stall near 3-4%. Share buybacks and dividends may limit reinvestment in growth.
The price is about 13% below our fair value near $223. Analysts expect roughly 7% revenue growth, which aligns with our view. The market fairly prices steady growth but not strong acceleration.
Breaks if: Buyback program is delayed or canceled in 2026
Breaks if: AI commoditizes data analytics, eroding pricing power
Dividend cut or fails to reach $2.00 in 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady earnings and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance and management's commitment to guidance.
The market currently reflects a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below what is justified. VRSK trades at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that some positive performance is already factored into its valuation.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, as management has reaffirmed its financial guidance and is executing on share repurchases and dividend increases. However, there is an elevated risk of missing earnings estimates, given the recent history of misses in the industry.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like BA, CAT, and UNP. If these companies continue to beat earnings and guide higher, it could support VRSK's performance. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact VRSK's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat and reaffirmed financial guidance strengthen the read. However, legal issues and a court ruling undermine merger plans, impacting growth strategy.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain and increase dividend payments to $2.00 per share for the full year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management increased quarterly dividends from $0.45 in 2025-Q4 to $0.50 in 2026-Q1 and Q2, consistent with the $2.00 per share annual guidance. Dividend payments have been delivered as committed.
“Paid a cash dividend of 50 cents per share on June 30, 2026.”
“Paid a cash dividend of 50 cents per share on March 31, 2026.”
“Dividend per share guidance for 2026 is $2.00.”
Breaks if: Non-GAAP EPS falls below $7.00 in FY26
Maintain and reaffirm full-year 2026 financial guidance including revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and diluted adjusted EPS targets.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 full-year guidance with revenue between $3,190M and $3,240M and diluted adjusted EPS between $7.45 and $7.75. Actual revenue grew from $753M in 2026-Q1 to $806M in 2026-Q2, consistent with guidance. The trajectory matches management's stated commitment to delivering on 2026 financial targets.
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for 2026.”
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for 2026.”
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for 2026.”
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $3.05 billion in FY26
Maintain and reaffirm full-year 2026 financial guidance including revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and diluted adjusted EPS targets.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 full-year guidance with revenue between $3,190M and $3,240M and diluted adjusted EPS between $7.45 and $7.75. Actual revenue grew from $753M in 2026-Q1 to $806M in 2026-Q2, consistent with guidance. The trajectory matches management's stated commitment to delivering on 2026 financial targets.
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for 2026.”
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for 2026.”
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for 2026.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VRSK appears to be on a steady path, but external sector performance will be critical. Not investment advice.
