Verisk Analytics (VRSK)

NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$190.90+1.91%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Verisk Analytics’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.69 → 8.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete $1.5 billion accelerated share repurchase program	A supporting condition in Verisk Analytics's published investment case. The stated target is $1.5 billion completed.	Intact	Buyback program is delayed or canceled in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management executed and funded $1.9 billion in share repurchases in the first half of 2026, including a $1.5 billion ASR program initiated in Q1 and a $200 million ASR in Q2. This demonstrates active delivery on the share repurchase commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain data analytics edge despite AI threats	Recent acquisitions strengthen its data analytics edge.	Intact	AI commoditizes data analytics, eroding pricing power	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Dividend increased to $2.00 per share in 2026	The company returns value with a $1.5B share buyback and a $2.00 dividend.	Intact	Dividend cut or fails to reach $2.00 in 2026	Dividend per share: $0.50 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $2.00 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cd6f4558-b252-4a53-9b74-824dae395327. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management increased quarterly dividends from $0.45 in 2025-Q4 to $0.50 in 2026-Q1 and Q2, consistent with the $2.00 per share annual guidance. Dividend payments have been delivered as committed. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Non-GAAP EPS near $7.60 in 2026	Profit per share is expected around $7.60.	Intact	Non-GAAP EPS falls below $7.00 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 full-year guidance with revenue between $3,190M and $3,240M and diluted adjusted EPS between $7.45 and $7.75. Actual revenue grew from $753M in 2026-Q1 to $806M in 2026-Q2, consistent with guidance. The trajectory matches management's stated commitment to delivering on 2026 financial targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Annual revenue near $3.2 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Verisk Analytics's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.215 billion.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $3.05 billion in FY26	Revenue: $806.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.215 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026806,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cd6f4558-b252-4a53-9b74-824dae395327. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 full-year guidance with revenue between $3,190M and $3,240M and diluted adjusted EPS between $7.45 and $7.75. Actual revenue grew from $753M in 2026-Q1 to $806M in 2026-Q2, consistent with guidance. The trajectory matches management's stated commitment to delivering on 2026 financial targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.70

$8.67 → $8.70 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.44B

$3.44B → $3.44B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.67	$3,441,624,198	12 / 13
2026-07-25	$8.67	$3,442,976,710	18 / 17
2026-07-26	$8.67	$3,442,976,710	18 / 17
2026-07-27	$8.67	$3,442,976,710	18 / 17
2026-07-28	$8.67	$3,442,976,710	18 / 17
2026-07-29	$8.67	$3,442,976,710	18 / 17
2026-07-30	$8.69	$3,440,246,736	12 / 13
2026-07-31	$8.68	$3,438,847,510	18 / 16
2026-08-01	$8.68	$3,436,766,636	12 / 13
2026-08-02	$8.69	$3,435,585,129	12 / 13
2026-08-03	$8.69	$3,438,847,510	19 / 16
2026-08-04	$8.69	$3,435,585,129	12 / 13
2026-08-05	$8.69	$3,440,003,760	19 / 16
2026-08-06	$8.69	$3,440,003,760	19 / 16
2026-08-08	$8.69	$3,436,747,629	13 / 13
2026-08-09	$8.70	$3,438,822,260	19 / 16
2026-08-10	$8.69	$3,436,747,629	13 / 13
2026-08-12	$8.70	$3,438,822,260	19 / 16
2026-08-13	$8.69	$3,436,747,629	13 / 13
2026-08-14	$8.69	$3,436,747,629	13 / 13
2026-08-15	$8.69	$3,436,747,629	13 / 13
2026-08-16	$8.69	$3,436,747,629	13 / 13
2026-08-17	$8.69	$3,436,747,629	13 / 13
2026-08-18	$8.69	$3,436,747,629	13 / 13
2026-08-19	$8.69	$3,436,747,629	13 / 13
2026-08-20	$8.69	$3,436,270,292	13 / 13
2026-08-21	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-08-22	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-08-23	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-08-24	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-08-25	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-08-26	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-08-27	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-08-28	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-08-29	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-08-30	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-08-31	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-01	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-02	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-03	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-04	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-05	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-06	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-07	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-08	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-09	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-10	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-11	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-12	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-13	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-14	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-15	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-16	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-17	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-18	$8.69	$3,436,264,042	13 / 13
2026-09-19	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-09-20	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-09-21	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-09-22	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-09-23	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-09-24	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-09-25	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-09-26	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-09-27	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-09-28	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-09-29	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-09-30	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-10-01	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-10-02	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-10-03	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-10-04	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-10-05	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-10-06	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-10-07	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-10-08	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-10-09	$8.69	$3,436,128,879	13 / 13
2026-10-10	$8.69	$3,435,797,629	13 / 13
2026-10-11	$8.69	$3,435,797,629	13 / 13
2026-10-12	$8.69	$3,435,797,629	13 / 13
2026-10-13	$8.69	$3,435,828,879	13 / 13
2026-10-14	$8.69	$3,435,770,826	13 / 13
2026-10-15	$8.70	$3,436,683,326	13 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	8	1
2026-06-01	10	9	1
2026-07-01	11	10	0
2026-08-01	11	9	0
2026-09-01	11	8	0
2026-10-01	11	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 13

$217.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$119.35$238.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete $1.5 billion accelerated share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain data analytics edge despite AI threatsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Dividend increased to $2.00 per share in 2026Dividend per share: $0.50 per share
Non-GAAP EPS near $7.60 in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Annual revenue near $3.2 billion in 2026Revenue: $806.3M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Verisk Analytics outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's commitment to financial guidance and dividend increases, despite some near-term risks.

What's priced into Verisk Analytics

The market appears to have a neutral valuation for VRSK, with expectations slightly below the average. The stock is currently priced at a premium compared to peers, indicating that some growth is already anticipated.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, as management has reaffirmed financial guidance and executed share repurchases. However, there is an elevated risk due to recent misses in the industry, which could impact future performance.

What Verisk Analytics hinges on

The thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the results of major players like BA, CAT, and UNP. Positive earnings from these companies could support VRSK, while misses could create headwinds.