Reading VRCA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRCA free→Reading VRCA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRCA free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 72% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If VRCA cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.81 VRCA trades at 3× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $20 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 71% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.79x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.45. 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$308.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$923.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,241.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is making more money.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth higher than the previous quarter.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows revenue decline compared to the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VRCA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As described in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VRCA Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Pursue regulatory approval for YCANTH in Japan to unlock additional funding.
Newly stated in 2025-Q2. Management highlighted the potential for $10 million in non-dilutive funding contingent on Japanese regulatory approval of YCANTH. No financial impact yet as approval is pending.
“We have the opportunity to receive an additional $10 million in non-dilutive funding from Torii upon Japanese regulatory approval of YCANTH.”
Focus on increasing revenue through the sales of existing products.
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $30.485 million. The focus on increasing product sales is evident, but revenue declined to $5.023 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress.
“For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenue was $30.485 million.”
Aim to improve operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating income declined from -$7.192 million in 2025-Q4 to -$9.715 million in 2026-Q1, indicating a worsening financial position. The trajectory shows limited progress in improving operating income.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. (the “ Registrant ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. This press release has been furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, and Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 11, 2026, Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. (the “ Registrant ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. This press release has been furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, and Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securi…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Charles Frantzreb as Director On December 26, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. (the “ Company ”) appointed Charles Frantzreb to serve as a director of the Company effective immediately. Dr. Frantzreb will serve as a Class III director whose initial term is scheduled to expire at the 2027 an…
Entry Into A Material Definitive Agreement. Private Placement of Common Stock and Warrants On November 23, 2025, Verrica Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with certain institutional investors (the “ Institutional Investor Purchase Agreement ”) and a Securities Purchase Agreement with other accredited investors (together with the Institutional Investor Purchase Agreement, the “ Purchase Agreements ” and the investors under the Purchase Agreeme…
“Operating income was -$9.715 million in 2026-Q1, compared to -$7.192 million in 2025-Q4.”