Reading VNDA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VNDA free→Reading VNDA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VNDA free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 85% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.88 VNDA trades at 2× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $39 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 85% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.53x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.61 → $-0.59 (+3.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$207.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$552.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,860.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth speeds up, it may help Vanda's performance. It shows the sector is recovering.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth rises back toward 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VNDA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (“Vanda”) issued a press release and is holding a conference call regarding its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Earnings Call”). The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. Various statements to be made during the Earnings Call are “forward-looking state…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on the launch and growth of the newly launched NEREUS™ product.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Vanda raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $240M-$290M, reflecting the contribution of NEREUS™. This indicates a strategic focus on the product's growth, but as it is newly launched, substantive delivery is yet to be demonstrated.
“Vanda is raising its full-year 2026 total revenue guidance to reflect the contribution of the newly launched NEREUS™.”
Continue to maintain the revenue guidance for Fanapt® and other existing products.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Vanda is maintaining its revenue guidance for Fanapt® and other products, indicating a stable focus on existing product lines. However, the financials show a decline in revenue from $57.2M in 2025-Q4 to $51.7M in 2026-Q1, suggesting limited progress in maintaining revenue levels.
“Vanda is maintaining prior ranges for Fanapt® and other products.”
Focus on addressing the earnings miss reported in recent quarters.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Vanda reported an earnings miss for both 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1. Net income improved from -$141.2M in 2025-Q4 to -$48.6M in 2026-Q1, indicating some progress in addressing the earnings miss, but challenges remain.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) Election of Director On April 22, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (the “Company”) expanded the size of the Board from six to seven members, effective immediately and appointed Charles C. Duncan, Ph.D., as a director of the Company to fill the vacancy created by the expansion. Dr. Duncan will serve as a C…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) Resignation of Executive Officer On March 29, 2026, Timothy Williams notified Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (the “Company”) of his resignation as the Company’s Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary, effective as of April 10, 2026, in order to pursue other endeavors. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (“Vanda”) issued a press release and is holding a conference call regarding its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 (the “Earnings Call”). The full text of the press release, which includes information regarding Vanda’s use of Non-GAAP financial measures, is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporat…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 18, 2026, the Compensation Committee (the “Compensation Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (the “Company”) awarded 2025 annual bonuses and approved 2026 annual base salaries and 2026 bonus target amounts for the Company’s named executive officers. Prior to approving the foregoing, the Compensation Commit…
“Vanda issued a press release regarding its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.”
“Vanda issued a press release regarding its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025.”