Reading UVV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UVV free→Reading UVV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UVV free→NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with UVV trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If UVV cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $53.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $53 UVV trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $47 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 12% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.34 → $0.25 (-26.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$74.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$194.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,403.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Getting inventories back on track is important. It helps manage supply and demand. This affects profits.
Confirms:Management says tobacco stocks are now in the right range.
Disproves:Tobacco stocks are still not in the right range for another quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UVV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Universal Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release on May 28, 2026, discussing its results for the quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference into this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UVV Universal Corporation | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | full | moderate |
USFD US Foods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFGC Performance Food Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | full | moderate |
COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on aligning uncommitted tobacco inventories with the company's targeted range.
Plan to increase flue-cured and burley tobacco crop sizes by 25% and 45%, respectively.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth would show a good change in the sector. It may help investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth for Q1 shows an increase above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth for Q1 drops below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Larger crops can boost supply and may increase revenue for tobacco.
Confirms:Tobacco crop sizes reported to be up by at least 10% compared to the previous year.
Disproves:Tobacco crop sizes reported to be flat or down year over year.
Why it matters: Sector revenue growth trends will show if Universal Corporation can keep up with peers. This affects its competitive position.
Confirms:Consumer Staples sector revenue growth rebounds to above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 3% year over year.
of Form 8-K, the Company is filing this Form 8-K/A to the Initial Form 8-K (this “Amendment No. 1”) to provide information regarding material changes to Mr. Diel’s compensation as a result of his election as the Company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, which changes had not been determined at the time of the filing of the Initial Form 8-K. Except as expressly set forth herein, this Amendment No. 1 does not amend the Initial Form 8-K in any way and does not modify or update…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 3, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company elected Steven S. Diel as the Company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective April 1, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Johan C. Kroner, who previously notified the Company of his intention to retire as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of th…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall either be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific references in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed, on January 20, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Universal Corporation (the “Company”) elected Anubhav Mittal as the Company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective February 17, 2026. On January 28, 2026, the Company withdrew its offer of employment to Mr. Mittal. Johan C. Kroner will cont…