Reading TPB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TPB free→Reading TPB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TPB free→NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $82.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $82 TPB trades at 22× p/e — 1.3× the 17× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $56 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 46% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.32x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.91 → $0.55 (-40.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$185.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$403.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,058.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice can change interest rates. This affects how much people spend. It also impacts Turning Point's market.
Confirms one read:When the FOMC raises rates, it shows they trust the economy.
Confirms the other:When the FOMC cuts rates or keeps them the same, it shows worries about the economy.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TPB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Turning Point Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter and three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TPB Turning Point Brands, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
WMT Walmart | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | low |
PG Procter & Gamble | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has raised the full-year Modern Oral sales guidance multiple times, indicating a focus on expanding this segment.
Management introduced full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance, indicating a focus on profitability and financial performance.
Management is investing in Modern Oral sales, marketing, and trade promotions to drive growth in this segment.
Why it matters: This report gives insight into consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales could boost Turning Point's outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it signals a positive shift in company momentum. This could improve investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth in Q3 exceeds 4% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 2, 2026, Turning Point Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, Turning Point Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, Turning Point Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
by reference. In connection with the additional $200,000,000 of Common Stock that may be sold pursuant to the prospectus supplement, as amended by the amendment, Milbank LLP provided the Company with the legal opinion attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 5.1. The sales agents and their respective affiliates have engaged, and may in the future engage, in commercial and investment banking transactions with the Company in the ordinary course of their businesses. They have recei…