Reading TVTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TVTX free→Reading TVTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TVTX free→
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable because the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 345% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $53.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $53, TVTX's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 77× p/e (4.7× the 16× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~345% near-term growth vs our ~76% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $12 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $49–$67. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 345% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 76%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.85x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.36 → $0.36 (+1.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 93% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 56.0% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$274.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$482.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,349.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Travere. This would signal a better environment for the company.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Strategic partnership with Everest Medicines
Exclusive licensing agreement enhances strategic partnership and growth.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 12, 2026, William Rote, Ph.D., Chief Research Officer of the Company, provided notice to the Company of his intention to retire from employment with the Company, effective February 17, 2027 (the “Retirement Date”), the 10 year anniversary of his employment with the Company. It is expected that Dr. Rote will continue to serve in his current…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$49.00 – $67.00 (median $54.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TVTX Travere Therapeutics, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding FILSPARI's market reach to over 100,000 patients across IgAN and FSGS.
Entered a strategic partnership with Everest Medicines for the development and commercialization of civorebrutinib.
Set revenue guidance for 2026 between $500M and $550M.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery or continued losses.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses. It also shows a way to make money.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows increased losses or no clear plan for recovery.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 1, 2026, Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a license and collaboration agreement (the “Agreement”) with Everest Medicines (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (“Everest”), pursuant to which Everest grants an exclusive license to the Company for the development and commercialization of civorebrutinib (also known as EVER001), a covalent reversible Bruton’s tyrosine kinase (“BTK”) inhibitor, and products containing civorebrutinib (“Produ…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As discussed below in Item 5.07, Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (the “ Company ”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “ Annual Meeting ”) at which the Company’s stockholders approved the Company’s 2018 Equity Incentive Plan, as amended (the “ 2018 Plan ”), to increase the number of shares of common stock authorized for issuance thereunder…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026 , Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing, among other things, its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release and accompanying information is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report. The information in this Item 2.02, and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securiti…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Completion of Senior Convertible Notes Offering On May 11, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) completed its registered underwritten public offering of $525.0 million aggregate principal amount of 0.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032 (such notes, the “Notes,” and such offering, the “Offering”) pursuant to the underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Jefferies LLC and…