Reading TNXP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TNXP free→Reading TNXP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TNXP free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 TNXP trades at 4× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $48 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 76% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.85x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
30 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-2.40 → $-2.62 (-9.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$339.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$865.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,270.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Court cases could change the agreement for TONMYA. This may affect millions and revenue.
Confirms:A court decision that harms the GPO agreement for TONMYA.
Disproves:A favorable court ruling that strengthens the GPO agreement for TONMYA.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TNXP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 8, 2026, the Company announced it entered into an agreement with a GPO, effective June 1, 2026, that provides coverage to approximately 17 million U.S. commercially insured individuals, with standard utilization management criteria, for TONMYA. To date, TONMYA is available under Medicaid in most states, representing approximately 75 million Medicaid beneficiaries. Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K contains certain forward-looking statements withi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TNXP Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Increase the availability of TONMYA under Medicaid to cover more beneficiaries.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. TONMYA coverage expanded from 55 million to 75 million Medicaid beneficiaries. The trajectory shows delivering on expanding coverage.
“TONMYA is available under Medicaid in most states, covering 75 million beneficiaries.”
“TONMYA is covered under Medicaid in 38 states, representing 55 million beneficiaries.”
Advance TNX-4800 through clinical trials for Lyme disease protection.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company plans to initiate an adaptive Phase 2 field study of TNX-4800 in the first half of 2027. The trajectory shows planning progress but no substantive delivery yet.
“Plans to initiate an adaptive Phase 2 field study of TNX-4800 in the first half of 2027.”
Progress TNX-1500 through clinical trials for organ transplant rejection prevention.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Findings from a Phase 1 study of TNX-1500 were published. The trajectory is in early stages with limited substantive delivery.
“Published findings from a Phase 1 study of TNX-1500 for organ transplant rejection.”
Why it matters: More Medicaid coverage could increase access to TONMYA, boosting potential sales. This is crucial for revenue growth.
Confirms:Watch for news about more states giving Medicaid coverage for TONMYA.
Disproves:No new states added to Medicaid coverage for TONMYA.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (the “Company”) announced its operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release that discusses these matters is filed as Exhibit 99.01 to, and incorporated by reference in, this report.
Other Events. On May 27, 2026, the Company announced the publication of the Manuscript, which reports findings from a single-center, first-in-human, Phase 1, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single-ascending dose escalation study in 26 healthy adult volunteers of the Company’s TNX-1500 product candidate, a monoclonal antibody in development for the prevention of organ transplant rejection and the treatment of autoimmune diseases. Participants were enrolled across three ascending…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (the “Company”) is disclosing selected preliminary operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and certain preliminary financial condition information as of April 30, 2026, as set forth below: · The Company ended the quarter with approximately $185.5 million in cash and cash equivalents. As of April 30, 2026, the Company had 15,540,801 shares of common stock outstanding. · The Company’s net cash use…
Other Events. On May 15, 2026 , the Company presented the following analysis of pharmacokinetic data from the Phase 1 trial for TNX-4800 at the Global Lyme Alliance in connection with the proposed adaptive Phase 2 field study for TNX-4800, planned for the first half of 2027, pending agreement by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration: • Simulation of a two-dose regimen (350 mg subcutaneous administration on Day 1 and 56 Days) of TNX-4800 were presented that predict mean serum levels for partic…
“Announced strategy for a Phase 2 field study of TNX-4800.”