Reading TNDM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TNDM free→Reading TNDM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TNDM free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is high and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 71% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact TNDM's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 TNDM trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $59 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $21–$56. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 72% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.21x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.29 → $-0.33 (-10.9% / 30d). 4 raised, 12 cut, 18 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 50.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$288.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$614.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,464.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Sales growth under 5% may show weak demand or problems with the pay-as-you-go model.
Confirms:Q2 2026 sales growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 sales growth reported above 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TNDM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders also approved the Company’s 2023 Long-Term Incentive Plan, as amended, to, among other things, increase the number of shares of the Company’s common stock (Common Stock) authorized for issuance under the plan by 3,260,000 shares (as so amended, the Amended Plan). The Amended Plan was previously appr…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$21.00 – $56.00 (median $27.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TNDM Tandem Diabetes Care | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operations through better cost management.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges. This affects Tandem's outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median of 10%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median of 10%.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow shows the company is managing costs better. This supports growth plans.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by 15% or more compared to last quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or stays flat compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: Growing revenue shows the company is expanding and innovating. This can bring in more investors.
Confirms:Q2 revenue exceeds $247.2M, showing growth.
Disproves:Q2 revenue falls below $247.2M.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs well. This can help investors feel good.
Confirms:Q2 operating income is less negative than -$17.4M.
Disproves:Q2 operating income worsens or stays more negative than -$17.4M.
Why it matters: Recent changes in leaders can change how a company performs. This matters to investors.
Confirms:New leaders bring a clear strategy that helps the company perform better.
Disproves:There is ongoing uncertainty. Changes in leadership may have negative effects.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow means better cost control and efficiency. This can help financial stability.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations stays above $11.1M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations drops below $11.1M in Q2.
and Exhibit 99.1 hereto is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 11, 2026, Mark Novara, the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer of Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (the “Company”), was notified that his employment with the Company is being terminated without cause. Mr. Novara’s last day of employment with the Company is scheduled to be May 18, 2026. The Company’s strategy and 2026 goals remain…
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On May 20, 2026, at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the Annual Meeting) of Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (the Company), upon recommendation of the Company’s Board of Directors (the Board), the Company’s stockholders approved amendments to the Company’s Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation to: (i) provide for removal of directors with or without cause, as required by Section 141(k) of the Delaware General Corporation Law (…
Entry into a Material Agreement. Indenture and Notes On February 27, 2026, Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced private offering (the “Offering”) of $300.0 million aggregate principal amount of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032 (the “Notes”), including the exercise in full of the initial purchasers’ option to purchase up to an additional $35.0 million principal amount of Notes. The Notes were issued in accordance with an indenture, dated February…