Reading TMCI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TMCI free→Reading TMCI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TMCI free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 75% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include the potential for TMCI to cut guidance after recently raising it, which could damage credibility, and the performance of sector bellwethers like ABT, SYK, and MDT, which could influence TMCI's momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.92 TMCI trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 75% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.21x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.29 → $-0.30 (-3.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$368.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$658.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,442.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the healthcare sector's revenue growth picks up, it may help Treace Medical's performance. This could indicate a better market environment.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth returns to above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TMCI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. This information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TMCI Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to reduce its cash usage by approximately 50% for the full year 2026 compared to 2025.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities improved from -$8.03M in 2025-Q4 to $7.24M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 50% reduction target. The trajectory shows delivering on the stated priority.
“The Company reiterates its expectation for a reduction in cash usage of approximately 50% for full-year 2026.”
“The Company expects a reduction in cash usage of approximately 50% for full-year 2026.”
The company reaffirms its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to be in the range of $202 million to $212 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $47.198M in 2026-Q1, indicating a trajectory towards the lower end of the guidance range. The company is maintaining its guidance, but delivery remains to be seen.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective as of the close of business on April 8, 2026, Gaetano M. Guglielmino, Chief Commercial Officer of Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (the “Company”), will depart from the Company. The Company does not plan to fill the Chief Commercial Officer role. Instead, Mr. Guglielmino’s responsibilities will be assumed by existing employees, and the Senio…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 27, 2026, Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. This information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange A…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 13, 2026, Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release regarding certain preliminary unaudited financial results for the quarter and the year-ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. This information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes o…
“The Company is reaffirming its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to be in the range of $202 million to $212 million.”
“The Company is updating its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $202 million to $212 million.”
“The Company is initiating full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $200 million to $212 million.”