Reading TCMD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TCMD free→Reading TCMD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TCMD free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, with capital-friendly moves. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The company is not currently profitable, so the valuation leans on sales- and cash-based methods. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26 TCMD trades at 27× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $38–$42. Not investment advice.
(median $40.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.17 (+3.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$168.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$337.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,213.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Tactile Systems.
Confirms:Health care revenue growth is speeding up again. It is moving back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 10%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TCMD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (“we,” “us,” and “our”) issued a press release disclosing our results of operations and financial condition for our most recently completed fiscal quarter. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 o…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TCMD Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | elevated |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to achieve total revenue in the range of $360 million to $368 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $75.3M in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the full-year target of $360M to $368M. The trajectory shows a challenging path ahead to achieve the stated revenue guidance.
“The Company is updating its 2026 financial outlook and now expects full year 2026 total revenue in the range of $360 million to $368 million.”
“The Company expects full year 2026 total revenue in the range of $357 million to $365 million.”
The company aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA in the range of $49 million to $51 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was -$1.5M in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for substantial improvement to meet the full-year adjusted EBITDA target of $49M to $51M. The trajectory shows limited progress towards achieving the EBITDA guidance.
The company aims to improve its cash flow from operations, which was negative in the latest quarter.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Cash from operations was -$339,000 in 2026-Q1, reflecting a negative cash flow situation. The company needs to focus on improving operational cash flow to support its financial health.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 4, 2026, the board of directors of Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (the “Company”) elected Andrea A. Pearson to serve as a member of the board and fixed the size of the board at nine directors, all effective as of March 9, 2026 . Ms. Pearson was also appointed to serve as a member of the Compliance and Reimbursement Committee and of the No…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (“we,” “us,” and “our”) issued a press release disclosing our results of operations and financial condition for our most recently completed fiscal quarter and year. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2025, Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (“we,” “us,” and “our”) issued a press release disclosing our results of operations and financial condition for our most recently completed fiscal quarter. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section…
Other Events. On November 3, 2025, we announced that our board of directors has authorized a new program to repurchase shares of our common stock in the open market or in privately negotiated purchases, or both, in an aggregate amount not to exceed $25 million. The timing and amount of any share repurchases will be based on the price of our common stock, general business and market conditions and other investment considerations and factors. The share repurchase program became effective on N…
“The Company continues to expect full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $49 million to $51 million.”
“The Company also expects full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $49 million to $51 million.”
“Cash from operations was negative $339,000 in the latest quarter.”