Reading TCBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TCBI free→Reading TCBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TCBI free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from TCBI and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $101.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $101 TCBI trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $101 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.87 → $1.88 (+0.4% / 30d). 4 raised, 7 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 31% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$94.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$224.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,421.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A decline in net income would raise concerns about revenue stability and growth.
Confirms:Q2 2026 net income for common stockholders is below $60 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 net income for common stockholders is above $60 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TCBI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this report (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing profitability by increasing net income.
Continue efforts to improve operating income through strategic initiatives.
Ensure consistent revenue performance amidst market fluctuations.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if net income and operating income are growing. This is key for Texas Capital's growth plans.
Confirms:Net income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Net income decreases year over year or grows less than 5%.
Why it matters: Steady revenue is important for Texas Capital's growth.
Confirms:Q2 revenue is above $419.09M. This shows stability.
Disproves:Q2 revenue is below $419.09M. This shows instability.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:Texas Capital's revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. This affects loan demand and Texas Capital's growth.
Confirms one read:Loan demand increases after the FOMC meeting on June 17.
Confirms the other:Loan demand decreases following the FOMC meeting on June 17.
Why it matters: A higher efficiency ratio means rising costs compared to income. This may hurt profits.
Confirms:Efficiency ratio was above 70% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Efficiency ratio was below 70% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: CPI data can change interest rates. This affects how much people spend. It also impacts Texas Capital's performance.
Confirms one read:CPI data shows inflation below 3%, which may boost consumer confidence.
Confirms the other:CPI data shows inflation above 5%, which may hurt consumer spending.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. John Cummings, Managing Director and Chief Administrative Officer of the Company, has been named as the Company’s Chief Operating Officer, effective April 16, 2026. Biographical and other information regarding Mr. Cummings required by Items 401(b) and 401(e) of Regulation S-K is contained in the Company’s definitive proxy statement, filed with the…
of Form 8-K and Item 601(a)(5) of Regulation S-K. The Company will provide, on a supplemental basis, a copy of any omitted schedule to the Securities and Exchange Commission or its staff upon request. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Date: February 27, 2026 TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES, INC. By: /s/ J. Matthew Scurlock J. Matthew Scurlock…
Other Events. On February 27, 2026, Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) completed the public offer and sale (the “Offering”) of $400,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.301% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2032 (the “Notes”). The Notes were offered and sold pursuant to the Company’s registration statement on Form S-3 (Registration No. 333-277061) (the “Registration Statement”) filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 14, 2024, and the prospectus con…
of this report (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.