Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$91.06+0.81%

Close 2026-10-20 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Texas Capital Bancshares’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.23 → 8.23 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	341.86M
EPS	—	2.033
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.34B
EPS	—	7.37
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.43B
EPS	—	8.228

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Earnings per share at least $6.79 in FY 2026	Analysts expect earnings per share above $7.5 in 2026, supporting durable profitability.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $6.79 for FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $2.28 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.79 EPS in FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Source published Oct 22, 20262.28 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 003be4a4-9adc-49da-af8c-fe4ee0acefba. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income growth to at least $73.79M in 2026-Q1	Texas Capital Bancshares is growing profitably with net income rising from $47M to $74M in one year.	Intact	net income falls below $47M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Net income: $103.705M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $73.79M net income in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Oct 22, 2026103,705,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 003be4a4-9adc-49da-af8c-fe4ee0acefba. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth to at least $94.42M in 2026-Q1	Operating income improved by $34M in the same period.	Intact	operating income falls below $60.46M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Operating income: $112.002M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $94.42M operating income in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 23, 2026112,002,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue near $419M per quarter	The bank maintains stable revenue near $420M per quarter.	Broken	revenue falls below $400M in any quarter	Revenue: $457.16M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $400M quarterly revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 22, 2026457,160,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 003be4a4-9adc-49da-af8c-fe4ee0acefba. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.23

$8.29 → $8.23 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.43B

$1.43B → $1.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.29	$1,431,347,990	12 / 9
2026-07-25	$8.29	$1,431,347,990	12 / 9
2026-07-26	$8.28	$1,435,619,830	12 / 9
2026-07-27	$8.28	$1,435,619,830	12 / 9
2026-07-28	$8.28	$1,435,619,830	12 / 9
2026-07-29	$8.32	$1,433,584,821	10 / 7
2026-07-30	$8.25	$1,432,289,940	12 / 9
2026-07-31	$8.32	$1,433,584,821	10 / 7
2026-08-01	$8.32	$1,433,584,821	10 / 7
2026-08-02	$8.25	$1,432,289,940	12 / 9
2026-08-03	$8.31	$1,433,584,821	10 / 7
2026-08-04	$8.25	$1,432,289,940	12 / 9
2026-08-05	$8.23	$1,431,600,940	12 / 10
2026-08-06	$8.23	$1,431,600,940	12 / 10
2026-08-08	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-09	$8.23	$1,431,600,940	12 / 10
2026-08-10	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-12	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-13	$8.23	$1,431,600,940	12 / 10
2026-08-14	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-15	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-16	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-17	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-18	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-19	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-20	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-21	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-22	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-23	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-24	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-25	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-26	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-27	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-28	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-29	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-30	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-08-31	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-09-01	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-09-02	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-09-03	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-09-04	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-09-05	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-09-06	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-09-07	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-09-08	$8.28	$1,430,895,061	10 / 8
2026-09-09	$8.28	$1,431,678,981	10 / 8
2026-09-10	$8.28	$1,431,678,981	10 / 8
2026-09-11	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-12	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-13	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-14	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-15	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-16	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-17	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-18	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-19	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-20	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-21	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-22	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-23	$8.28	$1,431,674,821	10 / 8
2026-09-24	$8.23	$1,427,534,842	10 / 8
2026-09-25	$8.23	$1,428,134,842	10 / 8
2026-09-26	$8.23	$1,428,134,842	10 / 8
2026-09-27	$8.23	$1,428,134,842	10 / 8
2026-09-28	$8.23	$1,428,134,842	10 / 8
2026-09-29	$8.23	$1,428,134,842	10 / 8
2026-09-30	$8.23	$1,428,134,842	10 / 8
2026-10-01	$8.23	$1,428,134,842	10 / 8
2026-10-02	$8.23	$1,428,134,842	10 / 8
2026-10-03	$8.26	$1,429,008,439	10 / 8
2026-10-04	$8.26	$1,429,008,439	10 / 8
2026-10-05	$8.26	$1,429,008,439	10 / 8
2026-10-06	$8.26	$1,429,008,439	10 / 8
2026-10-07	$8.24	$1,428,974,839	10 / 8
2026-10-08	$8.23	$1,428,339,679	10 / 8
2026-10-09	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-10	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-11	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-12	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-13	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-14	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-15	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-16	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-17	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-18	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-19	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-20	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-21	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-22	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-23	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8
2026-10-24	$8.23	$1,428,332,004	10 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	6	3
2026-06-01	4	7	3
2026-07-01	4	7	2
2026-08-01	4	8	2
2026-09-01	4	8	1
2026-10-01	4	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 22

$101.00New observation · no comparable prior

D.A. DavidsonOct 22

$105.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 9 · prior Apr 24

$114.00 → $113.00-0.9%

$0$62.70$125.40

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Earnings per share at least $6.79 in FY 2026Diluted EPS: $2.28 per share
Net income growth to at least $73.79M in 2026-Q1Net income: $103.705M
Operating income growth to at least $94.42M in 2026-Q1Operating income: $112.002M
Maintain revenue near $419M per quarterPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Texas Capital Bancshares outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regional banking business with a long-term thesis tied to earnings quality, revenue diversification, and capital discipline. The thesis is intact this month, and recent performance remains in the top half of its industry.

What's priced into Texas Capital Bancshares

The evidence describes TCBI as cheap versus peers, with no measured gap between expectations and the model’s outlook. Pricing appears justified, and fragility is low, so the valuation signal is not a clear sign of unusually high or low expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent performance is strong, and the latest event was an earnings beat. Fee income is progressing, with record-level fees in Q3 and non-interest income rising from Q1 to Q3; share repurchases have also continued. Risks include a possible guidance cut, a sector headwind, and the history of a deep miss, though the current estimated miss risk is low.

What Texas Capital Bancshares hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued fee-income growth, strong execution, and maintaining regulatory capital levels. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. Capital delivery is mixed, so maintaining strong ratios remains a watch point.