Reading TARS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TARS free→Reading TARS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TARS free→
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 52% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $60.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $62 TARS trades at 5× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $131 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 53% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.34x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.18 → $-0.25 (-36.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$172.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$400.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,042.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'elevated' to 'moderate'.
As of June 16, 2026, risk changed and fell to a moderate level from an elevated label. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry. The company's earnings quality is noted as loss-making, and management is described as stable.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare revenue growth speeds up, it could boost Tarsus's prospects. Sector growth affects all companies.
Confirms:Healthcare revenue growth returns to above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 10%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TARS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, which, among other matters, sets forth the Company’s results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve $670-700 million in XDEMVY net product sales for the fiscal year 2026.
The company expanded its Board of Directors from seven to eight members, appointing a new director.
The company faced an earnings miss, impacting its financial performance and requiring strategic adjustments.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 23, 2026, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, which, among other matters, sets forth the Company’s results of operations for the year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished under
Departure of directors or certain officers; election of directors; appointment of certain officers; compensatory arrangements of certain officers. On February 18, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”), upon the recommendation of its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee (the “Nominating Committee”), expanded the size of the Board from seven to eight directors and appointed David E.I. Pyott to the Board, effective immediately. Mr. Py…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2025, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, which, among other matters, sets forth the Company’s results of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2025, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, which, among other matters, sets forth the Company’s results of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished under