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Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$60.80-1.70%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 52% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Market cap
- $2.66B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2020-09-25
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $60.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$127.56consensus
Range $114.97 – $140.15
vs price: -52% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$477.34consensus
Range $430.60 – $524.09
vs price: -87% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $62 TARS trades at 5× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $131 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
5.3x
peer 9.4x · own history —
Premium
0.6x peer
Growth the price needs
-53%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$130.70
range $120.30 – $141.11
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 53% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
66th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.34x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -36.6% / 30d, n=7for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.18 → $-0.25 (-36.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme biologics/biosimilars.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$172.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$400.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,042.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- risk change · risk_labelsmall change
risk label changed from 'elevated' to 'moderate'.
As of June 16, 2026, risk changed and fell to a moderate level from an elevated label. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry. The company's earnings quality is noted as loss-making, and management is described as stable.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for sector revenue growth speeding up again
Why it matters: If healthcare revenue growth speeds up, it could boost Tarsus's prospects. Sector growth affects all companies.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Healthcare revenue growth returns to above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 10%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TARS yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting TARS and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If TARS raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If TARS cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping TARS and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If TARS misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, which, among other matters, sets forth the Company’s results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished under
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.